华南区稻田耕地质量空间分布与产能提升潜力

李玉浩; 王红叶; 张骏达; 王新宇; 张芮; 营浩; 崔振岭

doi:10.12357/cjea.20220783

华南区稻田耕地质量空间分布与产能提升潜力

doi: 10.12357/cjea.20220783

李玉浩^{1, 2,},
王红叶²,
张骏达²,
王新宇²,
张芮¹,
营浩^1, ,,
崔振岭¹

1.
中国农业大学资源与环境学院　北京　100094
2.
农业农村部耕地质量监测保护中心　北京　100125

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD1901501)和云南省重大科技专项计划(202202AE090034)资助

详细信息

作者简介:
李玉浩, 研究方向为养分管理与施肥。E-mail: talyh2016@163.com

通讯作者:
营浩, 研究方向为养分管理与施肥。E-mail: yingrl@163.com

中图分类号: S158.2
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-10-12
- 录用日期: 2023-05-30
- 修回日期: 2023-05-30
- 网络出版日期: 2023-07-13
- 刊出日期: 2023-10-16

Spatial distribution of cultivated land quality and potential for capacity improvement of paddy fields in South China

1.
College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China
2.
Cultivated Land Quality Monitoring and Protection Center, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China

Funds: This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFD1901501) and the Major Science and Technology Special Program of Yunnan Province (202202AE090034).

More Information

Corresponding author: E-mail: yingrl@163.com

摘要

摘要: 为了明确华南区稻田耕地质量空间分布及其提升潜力, 为实现华南区水稻高产稳产提供科学依据, 本研究基于2017年农业农村部耕地质量监测保护中心在华南区开展的耕地质量区域汇总评价数据, 分析华南区稻田耕地质量空间分布情况及其与产能对应关系, 并利用随机森林模型明确影响产能提升的主要限制因子。华南区稻田耕地质量等级呈现“中间高, 四周低”的空间分布规律; 利用半方差函数拟合结果表明, 华南区稻田耕地质量等级呈中度空间相关性(R²=0.95), 以广东(3.82)最高, 海南(5.32)最低。华南区耕地质量评价指标中, 土壤养分指标空间分布差异较大, 土壤全氮和缓效钾含量空间分布呈强烈的空间相关性, 分别呈现“西高东低”和“北高南低”空间分布规律; 土壤有机质、有效磷、速效钾含量呈中度空间分布相关性, 分别呈现由西向东、由东向西、由北向南不断降低的空间分布趋势; 土壤pH整体呈弱酸性(5.40)。土壤物理性状、立地条件、土壤管理情况及土壤健康状况以东部较好, 西部较差。华南区稻田耕地质量等级与单产整体呈显著正相关性(R²=0.9140), 水稻产量随耕地质量等级提升呈先迅速增加后趋于平缓趋势; 华南区稻田耕地质量等级与水稻产量可持续指数呈显著正相关(R²=0.9333)。随机森林模型的重要性分析结果表明, 土壤有效磷含量、灌溉能力和土壤有机质含量是影响华南区水稻产量的最关键因素。情景模拟表明, 若华南区稻田耕地质量等级分别提升0.5、1.0、1.5个等级, 则水稻将增产14.93%、22.39%、29.86%, 相当于节约耕地面积31.77万hm²、56.35万hm²、75.95万hm²。华南区稻田耕地质量和产能仍有较大提升潜力, 通过提升耕地质量来提升产能对保障粮食安全、促进农业绿色生产具有重大意义。
- 华南区 /
- 稻田 /
- 耕地质量等级 /
- 水稻产量
Abstract: In order to clarify the spatial distribution and promotion potential of paddy cultivated land quality in South China, and to provide a scientific basis for realizing high and stable rice yield in South China, based on the regional evaluation data of cultivated land quality in South China carried out by the Cultivated Land Quality Monitoring and Protection Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the Perople’s Republic of China in 2017, this study analyzed the spatial distribution of paddy cultivated land quality and its corresponding relationship with productivity in South China. The stochastic forest model was used to identify the main limiting factors that affect the capacity improvement. The spatial distribution law of the quality grade of paddy field in South China was “high in the middle and low around”. The fitting result of semi-variance function showed that the quality grade of paddy field in South China was in moderate spatial correlation (R²=0.95), the highest in Guangdong (3.82) and the lowest in Hainan (5.32). Among the evaluation indexes of cultivated land quality in South China, there was a great difference in the spatial distribution of soil nutrient indexes, and the spatial distribution of soil total nitrogen and slowly available potassium showed a strong spatial correlation, with the spatial distribution law of “high in the west and low in the east” and “high in the north and low in the south”, respectively. The contents of soil organic matter, available phosphorus and available potassium showed moderate spatial distribution correlation, with a decreasing spatial distribution trend from west to east, east to west and north to south, respectively. The overall soil pH was weakly acidic (5.40), with moderate spatial distribution correlation. Soil physical properties, site conditions, soil management and soil health were better in the east and worse in the west. There was a significant positive correlation between the quality grade of paddy field and the overall rice yield in South China (R²=0.9140), and the rice yield increased rapidly at first and then tended to slow down with the improvement of cultivated land quality. There was a significant positive correlation between the quality grade of paddy land and the sustainable index of rice yield in South China (R²=0.9333). The importance analysis of stochastic forest model showed that soil available phosphorus content, irrigation capacity and soil organic matter content were the most important factors affecting rice yield in South China. Scenario simulation showed that if the quality grade of paddy land in South China is improved by 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 respectively, the yield will increase by 14.93%, 22.39% and 29.86%, which is equivalent to saving 317 700 hm², 563 500 hm² and 759 500 hm² of cultivated land. There is still great potential to improve the quality and production capacity of paddy farmland in South China. Improving the production capacity by improving the quality of cultivated land is of great significance to ensure food security and promote agricultural green production.
- South China /
- Rice paddy field /
- Cultivated land quality grade /
- Rice yield

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图 1 华南区稻田土壤养分状况空间分布

Figure 1. Spatial distribution of soil nutrients in paddy fields in South China

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图 2 华南区稻田耕层容重和有效土层厚度空间分布

Figure 2. Spatial distribution of bulk density and effective soil thickness of plough layer in paddy field in South China

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图 3 华南区稻田耕地质量等级空间分布及其分布频率

Figure 3. Spatial distribution and frequencies of cultivated land quality grades in South China

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图 4 华南区耕地质量等级与水稻产量及稳产对应关系

Figure 4. Corresponding relationship between cultivated land quality grade and rice yield and yield stability in South China

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图 5 华南区稻田耕地质量评价指标对产量影响程度重要性排序

Figure 5. Rank of impact degree of each evaluation index of cultivated land quality on rice yield in South China

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图 6 华南区稻田耕地质量与产能提升关系情景模拟

Figure 6. Scenario simulation of the relationship between cultivated land quality and productivity improvement in South China

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表 1 耕地质量等级划分方案

Table 1. Classification scheme of cultivated land quality grade

耕地质量等级 Cultivated land quality grade	综合指数 Comprehensive index	耕地质量等级 Cultivated land quality grade	综合指数 Comprehensive index
1	≥0.8850	6	0.7695~0.7926
2	0.8619~0.8850	7	0.7464~0.7695
3	0.8388~0.8619	8	0.7233~0.7464
4	0.8157~0.8388	9	0.7002~0.7233
5	0.7926~0.8157	10	<0.7002

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表 2 华南区稻田耕地质量与产能提升潜力情景模拟内容解释

Table 2. Interpretation of scenario simulation content of cultivated land quality and capacity improvement potential of paddy field in South China

名称 Scenario	情景设置 Detail of scenario
情景1 Scenario 1	在现有耕地质量等级下 Under the existing quality grade of cultivated land
情景2 Scenario 2	耕地质量等级提升0.5个等级 The quality grade of cultivated land has been improved by 0.5 grades
情景3 Scenario 3	耕地质量等级提升1.0个等级 The quality grade of cultivated land has been improved by 1.0 grade
情景4 Scenario 4	耕地质量等级提升1.5个等级 The quality grade of cultivated land has been improved by 1.5 grades

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表 3 华南区稻田土壤养分状况空间变异理论模型及其参数

Table 3. Theoretical model and parameters of spatial variation of soil nutrient status in paddy field in South China

指标 Index	理论模型 Theoretical model	块金值 Nugget value	基台值 Sill value	块金值/基台值 Nugget to sill ratio	变程 Variable range (km)	R²	和方根 Root sum square (RSS)
土壤有机质含量 Soil organic matter content	高斯型 Gaussian	0.07	0.14	0.50	5.27	0.87	0.00
土壤全氮含量 Soil total nitrogen content	球函数 Spherical	0.07	0.31	0.23	5.20	0.83	0.02
土壤有效磷含量 Soil available phosphorus content	指数型 Exponential	0.30	0.68	0.44	7.02	0.98	0.00
土壤速效钾含量 Soil available potassium content	高斯型 Gaussian	0.22	0.43	0.50	5.47	0.93	0.01
土壤缓效钾含量 Slowly available potassium content in soil	高斯型 Gaussian	0.06	0.75	0.08	0.37	0.04	0.01
土壤pH Soil pH	球函数 Spherical	0.18	0.46	0.39	6.16	0.89	0.02
块金值/基台值<0.25 为强空间相关性, 0.25~0.75 为中度空间相关性, >0.75为弱空间相关性。A strong spatial correlation occurs when the value of nugget to sill ratio is lower than 0.25; value of nugget to sill ratio between 0.25 and 0.75 is a moderate spatial correlation; a weak spatial correlation occurs when the value of nugget to sill ratio is higher than 0.75.

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表 4 华南区稻田耕层容重和有效土层厚度空间变异理论模型及其参数

Table 4. Theoretical model and parameters of spatial variation of bulk density and effective soil thickness of plough layer in paddy field in South China

指标 Index	理论模型 Theoretical model	块金值 Nugget value	基台值 Sill value	块金值/基台值 Nugget to sill ratio	变程 Variable range (km)	R²	和方根 Root sum square (RSS)
耕层容重 Thickness of plough layer	高斯型 Gaussian	0.01	0.03	0.40	4.87	0.94	0.00
有效土层厚度 Effective thickness of soil layer	指数型 Exponential	281.00	619.90	0.45	18.03	0.89	8521.00
块金值/基台值<0.25 为强空间相关性, 0.25~0.75 为中度空间相关性, >0.75为弱空间相关性。A strong spatial correlation occurs when the value of nugget to sill ratio is lower than 0.25; value of nugget to sill ratio between 0.25 and 0.75 is a moderate spatial correlation; a weak spatial correlation occurs when the value of nugget to sill ratio is higher than 0.75.

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表 5 华南区稻田耕层质地和质地构造性质空间分布及频率

Table 5. Spatial distribution and frequencies of texture structure and texture of paddy field in South China %　

省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	质地 Texture
省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	砂土 Sand	砂壤 Sandy loam	轻壤 Light loam	中壤 Middle loam	重壤 Heavy loam	黏土 Clay
福建 Fujian	1.43	24.59	0.00	44.06	28.07	1.84
广东 Guangdong	0.10	2.23	83.22	12.78	0.00	1.68
广西 Guangxi	0.22	24.08	12.32	35.39	24.97	3.02
海南 Hainan	5.30	28.70	22.31	15.97	17.23	10.49
华南区 South China	1.34	14.20	49.14	20.42	11.01	3.90

省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	质地构造 Texture structure
省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	薄层型 Thin layer type	松散型 Loose type	紧实型 Compact type	夹层型 Sandwich type	上紧下松型 Upper tight and lower loose type	上松下紧型 Upper loose and lower tight type	海绵型 Sponge type
福建 Fujian	0.00	3.07	30.74	8.61	1.43	56.15	0.00
广东 Guangdong	0.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.86	48.59
广西 Guangxi	2.41	0.78	9.69	24.52	4.37	54.82	3.42
海南 Hainan	0.00	64.96	13.20	0.00	13.03	5.71	3.11
华南区 South China	0.81	14.44	6.89	5.99	3.88	42.28	25.70

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表 6 华南区稻田立地条件空间分布及频率

Table 6. Spatial distribution and frequencies of site conditions in paddy field in South China %　

省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	地形部位 Topographic position
省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	山间盆地 Intermontane basin	宽谷盆地 Wide valley basin	平原低阶 Plain low order	平原中阶 Plain middle order	平原高阶 Plain high order	丘陵上部 Upper part of hill	丘陵中部 Middle part of hill	丘陵下部 Lower part of hill
福建 Fujian	3.89	4.71	1.64	1.84	43.85	5.94	9.84	14.55
广东 Guangdong	0.30	0.03	53.41	0.13	0.00	14.68	1.23	24.48
广西 Guangxi	20.10	14.05	7.73	17.36	0.22	0.56	11.09	20.10
海南 Hainan	0.00	0.00	55.22	17.93	9.86	4.09	3.11	9.80
华南区 South China	4.87	3.43	40.46	7.93	4.86	8.70	4.36	19.72

省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	地形部位 Topographic position			农田林网化程度 Degree of farmland forest network
省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	山地坡上 Upper part of hillside	山地坡中 Middle part of slope	山地坡下 Lower part of slope	高 High	中 Medium	低 Low
福建 Fujian	2.25	3.28	8.20	0.00	39.96	60.04
广东 Guangdong	0.30	0.60	4.85	0.00	8.35	91.65
广西 Guangxi	0.28	2.80	5.71	2.69	24.86	72.45
海南 Hainan	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.69	93.31
华南区 South China	0.35	1.12	4.20	0.60	13.60	85.80

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表 7 华南区稻田灌溉能力和排水能力空间分布及频率

Table 7. Spatial distribution and frequencies of irrigation capacity and drainage capacity of paddy fields in South China %　

省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	灌溉能力 Irrigation capacity				排水能力 Drainage capacity
省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	充分满足 Fully satisfied	满足 Satisfied	基本满足 Basically satisfied	不满足 Not satisfied	充分满足 Fully satisfied	满足 Satisfied	基本满足 Basically satisfied	不满足 Not satisfied
福建 Fujian	31.56	7.17	45.08	16.19	79.92	16.80	1.43	1.84
广东 Guangdong	61.02	33.98	5.00	0.00	8.40	89.72	0.00	1.88
广西 Guangxi	9.07	30.07	58.85	2.02	20.16	25.92	43.39	10.53
海南 Hainan	13.49	40.75	35.33	10.43	17.23	67.84	9.74	5.19
华南区 South China	37.34	32.94	26.02	3.70	17.30	66.31	11.88	4.52

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表 8 华南区土壤健康状况空间分布及频率

Table 8. Spatial distribution and frequencies of soil health status in South China %　

省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	生物多样性 Biological diversity			清洁程度 Cleanliness degree
省(自治区) Province (autonomous region)	丰富 Rich	一般 General	不丰富 Not rich	清洁 Clean	尚清洁 Relatively clean
福建 Fujian	38.73	44.47	16.80	100.00	0.00
广东 Guangdong	98.02	1.98	0.00	100.00	0.00
广西 Guangxi	6.83	80.57	12.60	100.00	0.00
海南 Hainan	10.20	82.36	7.44	100.00	0.00
华南区 South China	55.04	39.51	5.44	100.00	0.00

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