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中国冬小麦主产区气候变化及其对小麦产量影响研究

王妍 张晓龙 石嘉丽 沈彦军

王妍, 张晓龙, 石嘉丽, 沈彦军. 中国冬小麦主产区气候变化及其对小麦产量影响研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2022, 30(5): 723−734 doi: 10.12357/cjea.20210702
引用本文: 王妍, 张晓龙, 石嘉丽, 沈彦军. 中国冬小麦主产区气候变化及其对小麦产量影响研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2022, 30(5): 723−734 doi: 10.12357/cjea.20210702
WANG Y, ZHANG X L, SHI J L, SHEN Y J. Climate change and its effect on winter wheat yield in the main winter wheat production areas of China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2022, 30(5): 723−734 doi: 10.12357/cjea.20210702
Citation: WANG Y, ZHANG X L, SHI J L, SHEN Y J. Climate change and its effect on winter wheat yield in the main winter wheat production areas of China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2022, 30(5): 723−734 doi: 10.12357/cjea.20210702

中国冬小麦主产区气候变化及其对小麦产量影响研究

doi: 10.12357/cjea.20210702
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(42001037)和中国科学院农业水资源重点实验室重点方向培育项目资助
详细信息
    作者简介:

    王妍, 主要从事气候变化对农业水资源的影响研究。E-mail: wangyan1@ms.sjziam.ac.cn

    通讯作者:

    沈彦军, 主要从事流域生态水文模拟与水环境管理方向研究。E-mail: shenyanjun@sjziam.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P467; S512.1+1

Climate change and its effect on winter wheat yield in the main winter wheat production areas of China

Funds: This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42001037) and the Key Cultivation Project of the Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
More Information
  • 摘要: 气候变化对农业生产具有重要影响, 明确影响作物产量的关键生育期和限制性气象因子对保障粮食安全具有重要意义。本文基于气象站点和农业站点的观测数据及产量数据, 采用趋势分析法和线性回归法分析了1960—2019年我国冬小麦主产区气象因子的时空分布特征, 解析了产量与气象因子间的回归关系, 确定了典型低产年影响产量的关键生育期和限制性气象因子。结果表明: 1) 1960—2019年, 冬小麦主产区平均温度、有效降水和冷积温(日最低气温低于0 ℃的积温)的分布大致呈南高北低, 而日照时数、气温日较差和热积温(日最高气温高于30 ℃的积温)为北高南低; 平均气温和冷积温呈显著上升趋势, 日照时数和气温日较差显著下降, 有效降水和热积温的变化趋势无明显特征。2) 2000—2019年, 中国冬小麦主产区小麦年均单产为3426~5910 kg∙hm−2, 各省(市)冬小麦产量均呈显著上升趋势(P<0.05); 气象因子对产量贡献率的排序为气温日较差>日照时数>有效降水>冷积温>平均气温>热积温。3)典型低产年, 抽穗至成熟期是气候因子影响产量的关键时期, 限制性气象因子为有效降水、日照时数和气温日较差。综上, 中国冬小麦主产区气候因子的分布特征和变化趋势存在空间异质性, 在气候变化背景下, 应关注气温日较差、日照时数和有效降水对冬小麦生长的影响, 同时重点关注冬小麦抽穗至成熟期上述气象因子对产量的不利影响。
  • 图  1  中国冬小麦主产区种植面积及气象站点、农业站点分布

    Figure  1.  Distribution of winter wheat planting area, meteorological and agricultural stations in the main winter wheat production areas of China

    图  2  中国冬小麦主产区1960—2019年冬小麦生长季气象因子多年均值的空间分布

    Tmean : 平均气温; Pre: 有效降水; SD: 日照时数; DTR: 气温日较差; HDD: 热积温; CDD: 冷积温。Tmean: mean temperature; Pre: effective precipitation; SD: sunshine duration; DTR: daily temperature range; HDD: heating degree days; CDD: cooling degree days.

    Figure  2.  Spatial distribution of annual average values of meteorological factors during winter wheat growing season from 1960 to 2019 in the main winter wheat production areas of China

    图  3  中国冬小麦主产区1960—2019年冬小麦生长季气象因子的变化趋势

    Tmean : 平均气温; Pre: 有效降水; SD: 日照时数; DTR: 气温日较差; HDD: 热积温; CDD: 冷积温; 黑点为变化趋势通过显著性检验的站点(P<0.05)。Tmean: mean temperature; Pre: effective precipitation; SD: sunshine duration; DTR: daily temperature range; HDD: heating degree days; CDD: cooling degree days. The black points represent the stations where the meteorological factor changed significantly (P<0.05).

    Figure  3.  Trends of meteorological factors during winter wheat growing season from 1960 to 2019 in the main winter wheat production areas of China

    图  4  中国冬小麦主产区各地1960—2019年冬小麦实际产量、年均产量、趋势产量、气候产量及产量变异系数

    CV: 变异系数。CV: coefficient of variation.

    Figure  4.  Actual yield, annual average yield, trend yield, climatic yield and the coefficients of variation of winter wheat from 1960 to 2019 in different regions of the main winter wheat production areas of China

    图  5  中国冬小麦主产区各地冬小麦不同生育阶段气象因子对气候产量的决定系数

    Figure  5.  Determination coefficients of meteorological factors at every growth stage on climatic yield of winter wheat in different regions of the main winter wheat production areas of China

    表  1  中国冬小麦主产区冬小麦生育阶段(月-日)划分

    Table  1.   Division of winter wheat growth stages (month-day) in the main winter wheat production areas of China

    区域
    Region
    生育阶段 Growth stage
    播种—出苗
    Sowing to
    emergence
    出苗—返青(次年)
    Emergence to regreening
    (next year)
    返青—拔节
    Regreening
    to jointing
    拔节—抽穗
    Jointing to
    heading
    抽穗—成熟
    Heading to
    maturity
    生长季长度
    Growing season
    duration (d)
    安徽 Anhui10-12—11-0111-01—03-0103-01—03-2103-21—04-1104-11—05-21212
    北京 Beijing10-04—10-1510-15—03-0403-04—04-1304-13—05-0305-03—06-10249
    河北 Hebei10-06—10-1510-15—03-0503-05—04-1404-14—05-0405-04—06-13250
    河南 Henan10-15—10-2410-24—02-1702-17—03-2003-20—04-1404-14—05-29226
    江苏 Jiangsu10-14—10-2310-23—02-2202-22—04-0204-02—04-2504-25—06-07236
    山东 Shandong10-10—10-2010-20—02-2302-23—04-0504-05—04-2704-27—06-10242
    山西 Shanxi10-08—10-1810-18—02-2302-23—03-2903-29—04-2404-24—06-07242
    陕西 Shaanxi10-03—10-1410-14—02-2702-27—04-0804-08—04-2704-27—06-07247
    天津 Tianjin10-04—10-1410-14—02-2002-20—04-1304-13—04-2904-29—06-05244
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  冬小麦生长季气候产量归因分析

    Table  2.   Attribution analysis of climatic yield in winter wheat growing season

    地区
    Region
    决定系数
    Determination coefficient (R2)
    贡献率 Contribution rate (%)
    TmeanPreSDDTRHDDCDD
    安徽 Anhui 0.48 9.65 17.86 24.35 20.31 1.56 26.27
    北京 Beijing 0.49 37.37 32.09 6.72 12.55 5.39 5.88
    河北 Hebei 0.45 3.98 4.90 36.87* 26.26 10.01 17.98
    河南 Henan 0.26 0.88 15.72 24.75 28.94 11.43 18.28
    江苏 Jiangsu 0.26 28.06 14.41 0.52 17.61 9.71 29.68
    山东 Shandong 0.46 25.05 27.46 9.92 24.38 11.89 1.31
    山西 Shanxi 0.24 9.62 39.71 23.01 18.16 3.07 6.43
    陕西 Shaanxi 0.80* 0.83 32.31* 33.18* 22.63* 0.36 10.69
    天津 Tianjin 0.15 20.54 6.53 26.42 40.74 4.15 1.62
      Tmean : 平均气温; Pre: 有效降水; SD: 日照时数; DTR: 气温日较差; HDD: 热积温; CDD: 冷积温; *表示气候因子贡献率通过显著性检验(P<0.05)。Tmean: mean temperature; Pre: effective precipitation; SD: sunshine duration; DTR: daily temperature range; HDD: heating degree days; CDD: cooling degree days; * represents that the attribution of meteorological factor is significant (P<0.05).
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  中国冬小麦主产区气象因子对气候产量波动贡献率排序

    Table  3.   Ranking of contribution rates of meteorological factors to climatic yield of winter wheat in the main winter wheat production areas of China

    生育阶段 Growth stage贡献率排序 Ranking of contribution rate
    播种—出苗 Sowing to emergenceDTR>SD>Tmean>Pre>CDD>HDD
    出苗—返青 Emergence to regreeningCDD>DTR>SD>Pre> Tmean >HDD
    返青—拔节 Regreening to jointingPre>DTR>SD>CDD> Tmean >HDD
    拔节—抽穗 Jointing to headingDTR>SD>Pre> Tmean >HDD>CDD
    抽穗—成熟 Heading to maturityDTR> Tmean >HDD>SD>Pre>CDD
    全生育期 Whole growing seasonDTR>SD>Pre>CDD> Tmean >HDD
      Tmean : 平均气温; Pre: 有效降水; SD: 日照时数; DTR: 气温日较差; HDD: 热积温; CDD: 冷积温。Tmean: mean temperature; Pre: effective precipitation; SD: sunshine duration; DTR: daily temperature range; HDD: heating degree days; CDD: cooling degree days.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  中国冬小麦主产区典型低产年冬小麦不同生长阶段气象因子与多年均值对比

    Table  4.   Comparison of meteorological factors in the typical low yield year with multi-year averages in different growth periods of winter wheat in the main winter wheat production areas of China

    区域 Region生育阶段 Growth stage
    播种—出苗
    Sowing to
    emergence
    出苗—返青(次年)
    Emergence to regreening
    (next year)
    返青—拔节
    Regreening to
    jointing
    拔节—抽穗
    Jointing to
    heading
    抽穗—成熟
    Heading to
    maturity
    安徽 AnhuiDTR(+) ↓2.12 ℃//SD(+)↓16.82 hPre(−) ↑27.23 mm
    SD(+) ↓145.02 h
    DTR(+)↓2.69 ℃
    北京 Beijing////DTR(+) ↑0.31 ℃
    河北 Hebei/Tmean(−) ↑1.72 ℃
    /SD(+) ↓21.53 h/
    河南 Henan/SD(−) ↑75.37 h//Pre(−) ↑23.30 mm
    江苏 JiangsuDTR(+) ↓2.22 ℃SD(−) ↑45.03 hTmean (−) ↑1.97 ℃
    SD(+) ↓27.50 h
    DTR(+) ↓1.67 ℃SD(+) ↓65.85 h
    HDD(−) ↑15.50 ℃
    山东 Shandong/Pre(+) ↓13.34 mm//Pre(−) ↑13.63 mm
    陕西 Shaanxi////SD(+) ↓66.36 h
    山西 Shanxi///DTR(+) ↓2.15 ℃DTR(+) ↓1.46 ℃
    HDD(−) ↑10.12 ℃
    天津 Tianjin///SD(+) ↓22.24 h/
      Tmean: 平均气温; Pre: 有效降水; SD: 日照时数; DTR: 气温日较差; HDD: 热积温; CDD: 冷积温; (+): 气象因子的回归系数为正; (−): 气象因子的回归系数为负; ↑: 典型低产年气象因子较多年均值偏高; ↓: 典型低产年气象因子较多年均值偏低; / 表示典型低产年气象因子与多年均值差异不大。Tmean: mean temperature; Pre: effective precipitation; SD: sunshine duration; DTR: daily temperature range; HDD: heating degree days; CDD: cooling degree days. (+): the meteorological factor’s regression coefficient is positive, (−): the meteorological factor’s regression coefficient is negative; ↑: the meteorological factor of typical low yield year is higher than the multi-year average; ↓: the meteorological factor of typical low yield year is lower than the multi-year average; /: there was no significant difference between the meteorological factor of typical low yield year and the multi-year average.
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-10-21
  • 录用日期:  2022-02-28
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-03-18
  • 刊出日期:  2022-05-18

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