Effect of agricultural factor marketization on agricultural non-point source pollution: the regulatory role of environmental regulation
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摘要: 本文探讨了在农业市场化改革背景下, 农业要素市场化对农业面源污染的影响效应、作用机制以及环境规制在其中的调节作用。基于2004—2020年中国省级(不含港澳台、西藏)面板数据, 构建了动态面板模型, 并运用差分广义矩阵及调节效应模型进行分析。研究结果表明: 1)农业要素市场化对面源污染呈现倒“U”型的动态演化特征; 2)机制分析表明, 农业要素市场化通过种植结构效应、化学品投入效应和经营规模效应间接影响面源污染; 具体而言, 农业要素市场化对“非粮化率”和化肥投入强度存在倒“U”型影响, 对人均经营规模的影响在市场化程度较高的后期显著为正; 3)环境规制在“非粮化率”和化肥投入强度的传导机制中具有显著的负向调节作用, 对经营规模与面源污染之间的传导关系不存在调节效应。因此, 本文提出要进一步发挥市场化改革对农业污染治理的长效机制, 立足农业面源污染治理“规模效应”“结构效应”和“投入品效应”的路径依赖, 构建“政府-市场”双轨运行机制, 以实现农业生态环境的改善和农业可持续发展。Abstract: This study explores possible ways to mitigate agricultural surface pollution from the perspective of source management in the context of market-oriented reforms in agriculture, which is pioneered in this study. Based on China’s provincial-level (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet) panel data from 2004 to 2020, a dynamic panel model is constructed, and the differential generalized matrix estimation method is applied to explore the impact effect and transmission mechanism of agricultural factor marketization on non-point source pollution, and based on the theory of externality, to further analyze whether there is a moderating role of environmental regulation in the transmission mechanism. The analysis of impact effects shows that 1) the marketization of agricultural factors presents an inverted “U”-shaped dynamic evolution characteristic of non-point source pollution, which increases first and then decreases; 2) the analysis of mechanism shows that the marketization of agricultural factors indirectly affects non-point source pollution through the effects of planting structure, chemical inputs and scale of operation; in particular, the effect of marketization of agricultural factors marketisation on the “non-food rate” and fertiliser input intensity is in an inverted “U” shape; and the effect on the per capita scale of operation has no significant effect in the early stage of marketization, and is significantly positive in the later stage of higher marketization; 3) environmental regulation has a significant negative moderating effect on the transmission mechanism of “non-food rate” and fertilizer input intensity, and there is no moderating effect in the transmission relationship between scale of operation and non-point source pollution. Therefore, this study suggests to further play the role of market-oriented reform on the long-term mechanism of agricultural surface pollution management, based on the path-dependence of “scale effect”, “structural effect” and “input effect” of agricultural surface pollution management, and the role of market-oriented reform on the long-term mechanism of agricultural non-piont source pollution management, based on the path-dependence of “scale effect”, “structural effect” and “input effect”. Based on the “scale effect”, “structural effect” and “input effect” of agricultural non-point source pollution management, this study suggests to further play the role of market-oriented reform on the long-term mechanism of agricultural surface pollution management, and to build a dual-track operation mechanism of “government-market” to realize the improvement of agro-ecological environment and sustainable agricultural development.
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表 1 农业要素市场化评价指标体系
Table 1. Agricultural factor marketization evaluation index system
一级指标
First-order index二级指标
Secondary index农业劳动要素市场化
Marketization of agricultural labor elements主要农作物单位面积雇工天数(d∙hm−2)和工资性收入占农村居民人均可支配收入的比重(%)
Number of days of employment per unit area for major crops (d∙hm−2) and proportion of wage income per capita to disposable income per capita of rural residents (%)农业土地要素市场化
Marketization of agricultural land elements主要农作物单位面积流转地租金
Rent per unit area of major crops (¥∙hm−2)农业资本要素市场化
Marketization of agricultural capital elements农村住户固定资产投资占全社会固定资产投资的比重(%), 主要农作物每亩租赁服务费(¥∙hm−2)和农林水事务支出占地方财政支出的比重(%)
Proportion of fixed asset investment of rural households in total social fixed asset investment (%), rental service fee per unit area of major crops (¥∙hm−2), and proportion of expenditure on agriculture, forestry and water conservancy affairs in local government expenditure (%)主要农作物包括早籼稻(Oryza sativa subsp. Japonica)、中籼稻(Oryza sativa subsp. Indica)、晚籼稻(Oryza sativa subsp. Indica)、粳稻(Oryza sativa subsp. glutinosa)、小麦(Triticum aestivum L)、玉米(Zea mays L)、大豆(Glycine Willd)、棉花(Gossypium spp)、花生(Arachis hypogaea)、油菜籽(Brassica campestris Linn)、苹果(Malus domestica)、柑(Citrus tangerine)和桔(Citrus reticulata); 租赁服务费包括机械作业费、排灌费和畜力费。Major crops include early indica rice, middle indica rice, late indica rice, japonica rice, wheat, maize, soybean, cotton, peanut, rapeseed, apple, citrus and mandarin, and the leasing service fee include machinery operation fee, drainage and irrigation fee and animal power fee. 表 2 农业要素市场化对面源污染影响的基准回归及稳健性检验
Table 2. Benchmark regression and robustness test of the effect of agricultural factor marketization on agricultural non-point source pollution
模型1
Model 1 (pol)模型2
Model 2 (pol)模型3
Model 3 (pol)模型4
Model 4 (apol)模型5
Model 5 (apol)L.pol 1.185***(4.05) 1.197***(2.62) L.apol 0.901***(885.89) agr 0.363***(4.32) 4.294**(2.15) 1.112**(2.37) 0.378***(4.61) 1.081***(2.78) agr2 −0.491***(−4.65) −5.683*(−1.65) −0.872*(−1.76) −0.334***(−4.36) −0.949**(−2.00) 控制变量 Control variable YES YES YES YES YES N 510 510 450 450 390 R2 0.960 0.963 拉格朗日乘数检验 LM test 54.518*** F 65.666 自回归滞后2阶检验 AR (2) tests 0.754 0.138 0.258 萨根检验 Sargan tests 0.312 0.281 0.020 汉森检验 Hansen tests 0.391 0.401 0.710 括号内表示对应Z值; *、**、***分别表示在10%、5%和1%水平显著; pol和apol分别表示熵权法和均等赋值法测算的农业面源污染水平, L.pol、L.apol分别表示其对应的滞后项; agr和agr2分别表示农业要素市场化水平及其平方; N表示样本数。The corresponding Z value is in parentheses; *, ** and *** represent that the test is significance at levels of 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively; pol and apol represent the agricultural non-point source pollution measured by entropy weight and equalization assignment methods, respectively, and L.pol and L.apol are their corresponding lag terms; agr and agr2 are agricultural factor marketization and their squared terms, respectively; N represent sample size. 表 3 农业要素市场化对面源污染传导机制的检验结果
Table 3. Test results of the marketization of agricultural factors on the transmission mechanism of agricultural non-point source pollution
模型6
Model 6 (fer)模型7
Model 7 (sca)模型8
Model 8 (str)L.fer 1.254***(15.70) L.sca 0.001***(5.67) L.str 0.952**(2.16) agr 1.038**(2.44) 0.040(0.29) 3.410***(2.63) agr2 −1.226**(−2.28) 0.425***(3.62) −4.646***(−2.94) 控制变量 Control variable Yes Yes Yes N 450 450 450 自回归滞后2阶检验 AR (2) tests 0.083 0.010 0.034 萨根检验 Sargan test 0.619 0.405 0.849 汉森检验 Hansen tests 0.576 0.176 0.334 括号内表示对应Z值; L.fer、L.sca和L.str分别表示化学品投入强度、农业经营规模和种植结构的滞后项; agr和agr2分别表示农业要素市场化水平及其平方项; N表示样本数; *、**和***分别表示在10%、5%和1%水平显著。The corresponding Z value is in parentheses; fer, sca and str represent chemical input intensity, agricultural business scale, and planting structure, respectively, and L.fer, L.sca, and L.str are lagged terms of chemical input intensity, agricultural business scale, and planting structure, respectively; agr and agr2 are agricultural factor marketization and their squared terms, respectively; N represents sample size; *, ** and *** represent that the test is significance at levels of 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. 表 4 环境规制对农业要素市场化影响机制的调节效应检验
Table 4. Test results of the moderating effect of environmental regulation on the mechanism of agricultural factor marketization influence
模型9
Model 9 (pol)模型10
Model 10 (pol)模型11
Model 11 (pol)L.pol 0.844***(3.31) 1.365***(8.30) 0.691***(17.69) agr 0.127*(1.67) 0.940***(2.58) 0.865***(2.64) agr2 −0.248***(−2.74) −0.919**(−2.27) −1.139***(−2.70) env −0.023**(−2.30) 0.078(0.29) −0.051(−0.93) fer 3.793***(9.68) fer×env −0.033***(−5.34) sca −0.004**(−2.03) sca×env −0.001(−0.31) str 0.360*(1.90) str×env −0.078**(−2.48) 控制变量 Control variable Yes Yes Yes N 450 450 450 自回归滞后2阶检验 AR (2) tests 0.468 0.359 0.449 萨根检验 Sargan tests 0.915 0.400 0.240 汉森检验 Hansen tests 0.999 0.759 0.362 括号内表示对应Z值; pol和L.pol分别表示熵权法测算的农业面源污染水平及其对应的滞后项; agr和agr2分别表示农业要素市场化水平及其平方项; env、fer、sca和str分别表示环境规制、化学品投入强度、农业经营规模和种植结构; fer×env、sca×env、str×env分别表示化学品投入强度、农业经营规模、种植结构与环境规制的交乘项; N表示样本数。The corresponding Z value is in parentheses; pol and L.pol represent the agricultural non-point source pollution measured by entropy weight and the corresponding lag term; agr and agr2 are agricultural factor marketization and their squared terms, respectively; env, fer, sca and str represent environmental regulation, chemical input intensity, agricultural operation scale and planting structure, respectively; fer×env, sca×env and str×env respectively represent the cross term of chemical input intensity, agricultural operation scale, planting structure and environmental regulation, respectively; N represents sample size. -
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