Climatic suitability regionalization of Furong plums based on GIS in Fujian Province
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摘要: 为合理利用气候资源, 科学规划芙蓉李的种植布局, 基于福建省67个地面气象观测站1971—2018年的气象资料、2005—2014年芙蓉李面积和产量资料以及地理信息数据, 采用GIS技术开展福建芙蓉李气候适宜性区划。根据福建省的气候特点和芙蓉李生长的环境条件, 构建福建芙蓉李气候适宜性区划指标体系; 采用层次分析法和熵权法确定各区划指标的权重; 通过多元线性回归分析, 建立区划指标与经度、纬度、海拔高度的地理推算模型; 采用加权求和法, 计算芙蓉李气候适宜性指数; 根据福建芙蓉李气候适宜性指数的分布规律、芙蓉李种植生长的实际情况和实地调查情况, 以及限制芙蓉李生长的区划指标的区划结果, 将芙蓉李在福建的气候适宜性区域划分为适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区3个等级; 基于福建芙蓉李的种植现状和李果的单产高低, 对区划结果进行验证。结果表明: 适宜区主要集中在龙岩北部、三明、南平和宁德三市的大部分地区以及福州北部这些中高海拔地区; 次适宜区主要分布在福建省中部的武平、漳平至罗源一带; 不适宜区主要集中在南部和东南部沿海这些低海拔地区以及北部山区的高海拔地区。区划结果与福建芙蓉李的种植现状和李果的单产高低吻合性高。研究结果可为福建芙蓉李的种植布局提供决策参考。Abstract: Fujian is located in the southeast coast of China, where the superior climate resources create conditions for the cultivation of Furong plums. However, the topography of Fujian is complex, the climate is changeable, and the meteorological disasters in Fujian are characterized by many kinds, wide distribution, high frequency, high intensity and heavy loss, which affect the formation of the yield and quality of Furong plums. In order to reasonably utilize climatic resources and scientifically plan planting layout of Furong plums, climatic suitability regionalization of Furong plums in Fujian was conducted by using GIS and based on the meteorological data from 1971 to 2018 of 67 ground meteorological stations, area and yield data from 2005 to 2014 of Furong plums and the geographical information data. According to the climatic characteristics of Fujian and growing environmental conditions of Furong plums, the indicator system of climatic suitability regionalization of Furong plums was established. The weight of regionalization indicators were calculated by using analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. The geographical reckoning models between regionalization indicators, longitude, latitude and altitude were established by using multivariate linear regression analysis. Using the weighted summation method, climatic suitability index of Furong plums was calculated. The climatic suitability areas of Furong plums in Fujian were divided into suitable areas, sub-suitable areas and unsuitable areas based on the distribution laws of climatic suitability index, the actual condition of growing and field investigation of Furong plums in Fujian and the regionalization result of regionalization indicator for limiting the growth of Furong plums. Finally, the regionalization results were verified based on the planting status of Furong plums and per unit area yield of plum. The results of this study were as follows. The suitable areas were mainly distributed in the middle and high altitude areas along the north of Longyan and Fuzhou and most of Ningde, Sanming and Nanping. The sub-suitable areas were mainly distributed in the middle of Fujian along Wuping, Zhangping to Luoyuan. The unsuitable areas were mainly concentrated in the low altitude areas along the south and southeast coast and the high altitude areas of the northern mountain regions. The regionalization results were in good agreement with the planting status of Furong plums and per unit area yield of plum. The results of this study would provide decision reference for planting layout of Furong plums in Fujian.
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Key words:
- Furong plums /
- Climatic suitability /
- Climatic regionalization /
- GIS /
- Fujian
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图 1 芙蓉李气候适宜性指数(a)、冬季极端低温适宜性(b)、冬季低温时数适宜性(c)和(d)气候适宜性区区划
Figure 1. Regionalization of climatic suitability index (a), extreme low temperature in winter (b), low temperature hours in winter (c) and comprehensive climatic suitability region of Furong plums
表 1 芙蓉李气候适宜性区划指标及等级划分
Table 1. Climatic suitability regionalization indicators and rank division of Furong plums
指标 Indicator 适宜 Suitable 次适宜 Sub-suitable 不适宜 Unsuitable 年平均气温
Annual mean temperature (℃)$ \overline T $ 15<$ \overline T $≤20 13<$ \overline T $≤15
20<$ \overline T $≤22$ \overline T $≤13
$ \overline T $>22≥10 ℃年活动积温
Annual cumulative temperature ≥10 ℃ (℃)$ {\displaystyle \sum {T}_{\geqslant 10℃}} $ 5500<$ {\displaystyle \sum {T}_{\geqslant 10℃}} $≤6500 4000<$ {\displaystyle \sum {T}_{\geqslant 10℃}} $≤5500
6500<$ {\displaystyle \sum {T}_{\geqslant 10℃}} $≤8000$ {\displaystyle \sum {T}_{\geqslant 10℃}} $≤4000
$ {\displaystyle \sum {T}_{\geqslant 10℃}}$>8000花期低温阴雨天数
Low temperature rainy days in flowering period (d)$ {D_r} $ $ {D_r} $≤2 2<$ {D_r} $<4 $ {D_r} $≥4 冬季极端低温
Extreme low temperature in winter (℃)$ {T_{{\text{JDW}}}} $ $ {T_{{\text{JDW}}}} $>−5 −9<$ {T_{{\text{JDW}}}} $≤−5 $ {T_{{\text{JDW}}}} $≤−9 冬季低温时数
Low temperature hours in winter (h)$\displaystyle\sum { {T_d} }$ $\displaystyle\sum { {T_d} }$>500 300<$\displaystyle\sum { {T_d} }$≤500 $\displaystyle\sum { {T_d} }$≤300 
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表 2 芙蓉李气候适宜性区划指标专家打分表
Table 2. Expert evaluating table for climatic suitability regionalization indicators of Furong plums
区划指标
Regionalization indicator$ \overline T $ $ {\displaystyle \sum {T}_{\geqslant 10\text{°C}}} $ $ {T_{{\text{JDW}}}} $ $\displaystyle\sum { {T_d} }$ $ {D_r} $ 年平均气温
Annual mean temperature (℃)$ \overline T $ 1 1 1/3 1/5 5 ≥10 ℃年活动积温
Annual cumulative temperature ≥10 ℃ (℃)$ {\displaystyle \sum {T}_{\geqslant 10\text{°C}}} $ 1 1 1/3 1/5 5 冬季极端低温
Extreme low temperature in winter (℃)$ {T_{{\text{JDW}}}} $ 3 3 1 1/3 7 冬季低温时数
Low temperature hours in winter (h)$\displaystyle\sum { {T_d} }$ 5 5 3 1 9 花期低温阴雨天数
Low temperature rainy days in flowering period (d)$ {D_r} $ 1/5 1/5 1/7 1/9 1
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表 3 芙蓉李气候适宜性区划指标权重
Table 3. Weights for climatic suitability regionalization indicators of Furong plums
指标
Indicator主观权重
Subjective weight客观权重
Objective weight综合权重
Comprehensive weight年平均气温
Annual mean temperature (℃)$ \overline T $ 0.1092 0.1150 0.1121 ≥10 ℃年活动积温
Annual cumulative temperature ≥10 ℃ (℃)$ {\displaystyle \sum {T}_{\geqslant 10℃}} $ 0.1092 0.1804 0.1448 冬季极端低温
Extreme low temperature in winter (℃)$ {T_{{\text{JDW}}}} $ 0.2499 0.1055 0.1777 冬季低温时数
Low temperature hours in winter (h)$ \sum {{T_d}} $ 0.5005 0.3667 0.4336 花期低温阴雨天数
Low temperature rainy days in flowering period (d)$ {D_r} $ 0.0312 0.2324 0.1318
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表 4 芙蓉李气候适宜性区划指标地理推算模型
Table 4. Geographical reckoning models for climatic suitability regionalization indicators of Furong plums
指标
Indicator地理推算模型
Geographical reckoning modelR F值
F value年平均气温
Annual mean temperature (℃)$ \overline T $ $ \overline T = - 5.048 - 3.284 \times {10^{ - 7}}x + 2.121 \times {10^{ - 6}}y - 1.716 \times {10^{ - 4}}z $ 0.773 31.083 ≥10 ℃年活动积温
Annual cumulative temperature ≥10 ℃ (℃)$ {\displaystyle \sum {T}_{\geqslant 10\text{°C}}} $ $ {\displaystyle \sum {T}_{\geqslant 10\text{°C}}}=-6.235-9.737\times {10}^{-7}x+2.623\times {10}^{-6}y-2.251\times {10}^{-4}z $ 0.874 68.178 冬季极端低温
Extreme low temperature in winter (℃)$ {T_{{\text{JDW}}}} $ $ {T_{{\text{JDW}}}} = 3.547 + 8.261 \times {10^{ - 7}}x - 1.200 \times {10^{ - 6}}y - 4.136 \times {10^{ - 4}}z $ 0.963 271.033 冬季低温时数
Low temperature hours in winter (h)$ \sum {{T_d}} $ $ \sum {{T_d}} = - 4.129 - 8.052 \times {10^{ - 7}}x + 1.707 \times {10^{ - 6}}y + 6.070 \times {10^{ - 4}}z $ 0.973 371.347 花期低温阴雨天数
Low temperature rainy days in flowering period (d)$ {D_r} $ $ {D_r} = 5.330 + 1.870 \times {10^{ - 7}}x - 1.731 \times {10^{ - 6}}y - 2.729 \times {10^{ - 4}}z $ 0.928 131.096 表中, x、y、z分别表示公里网经度坐标(m)、公里网纬度坐标(m)和海拔高度(m), R为模型复相关系数。各模型均能通过信度e=0.001的显著性检验。In the table, x, y, and z respectively represent the longitude coordinate (m) of the kilometer network, the latitude coordinate (m) of the kilometer network and the altitude (m), and R is the model complex correlation coefficient. All the models pass the significance test with a reliability of 0.001.
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表 5 基于气候适宜性指数(I)的芙蓉李气候适宜性区划等级标准
Table 5. Classification criteria of climatic suitability regionalization based on the climatic suitability index (I) of Furong plums
指数
Index适宜
Suitable次适宜
Sub-suitable不适宜
UnsuitableI >0.53 0.49~0.53 <0.49
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表 6 芙蓉李限制生长指标适宜性等级划分
Table 6. Suitability rank division of indicators for limiting the growth of Furong plums
分级指标
Classification indicator适宜
Suitable次适宜
Sub-suitable不适宜
Unsuitable$ {T_{{\text{JDW}}}} $ >0.35 0.15~0.35 <0.15 $ \sum {{T_d}} $ >0.5 0.33~0.5 <0.33
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