李佳佳, 王鹏鑫, 张瑞. 中国设施农业的减碳增汇效应分析−基于1828个县域面板数据的实证研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(0): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230531
引用本文: 李佳佳, 王鹏鑫, 张瑞. 中国设施农业的减碳增汇效应分析−基于1828个县域面板数据的实证研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(0): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230531
LI J J, WANG P X, ZHANG R. Effects of protected agriculture on carbon reduction and carbon sink increase in China: an empirical study based on 1828 county panel data[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(0): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230531
Citation: LI J J, WANG P X, ZHANG R. Effects of protected agriculture on carbon reduction and carbon sink increase in China: an empirical study based on 1828 county panel data[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(0): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230531

中国设施农业的减碳增汇效应分析基于1828个县域面板数据的实证研究

Effects of protected agriculture on carbon reduction and carbon sink increase in China: an empirical study based on 1828 county panel data

  • 摘要: 设施农业作为中国现代农业的重要标志, 揭示其时空格局演变及减碳增汇效应对实现“双碳”目标、促进绿色转型发展具有重要意义。本文应用空间经济计量方法, 采用2013—2017年中国1828个县域面板数据, 分析中国县域碳排放、固碳量及设施农业的时空演变特征, 在此基础上实证分析了设施农业的减碳增汇效应, 并从区域和粮食产区角度进行了异质性分析。结果表明: 1)中国县域碳排放总体呈现东高西低的空间格局, 固碳量则显示出西高东低的特点, 设施农业面积空间格局也为东高西低, 三者均具有显著的空间正相关性及高-高空间集聚特征。2)设施农业面积对碳排放的直接和间接效应都呈现“U”型, 存在显著减碳效应, 但设施农业面积对固碳量的直接和间接效应都显著为负, 增汇效应不明显。3)设施农业面积对于减碳增汇的作用存在显著的异质性。就区域层面而言, 设施农业面积显著促进东部和东北部地区碳减排, 显著抑制中部和西部地区碳汇; 就粮食产区而言, 设施农业面积对粮食主产区和主销区存在显著的减碳效应, 对三大粮食产区的增汇效应都不明显。研究认为, 各县应当加快推进设施农业绿色发展, 因地制宜发展低碳农业、加强区域间减碳增汇合作交流, 以此有力地推进设施农业绿色可持续发展, 实现减碳增汇的愿景。景。

     

    Abstract: Agriculture is not only a significant source of carbon emissions but also a massive carbon sink system. Reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon sinks are essential directions and goals for achieving the green and high-quality development of modern agriculture. Protected agriculture is a crucial symbol of modern agriculture in China, revealing its spatiotemporal pattern evolution and the effect of reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon sink is of great significance for achieving the “double carbon” goal and promoting green transformational development. However, there is limited research on reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon sinks in protected agriculture, and the spatial correlation among protected agriculture, carbon emissions, and carbon sinks has not received enough attention. Research on reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon sinks in protected agriculture should be conducted using a more microscopic county-level sample and should consider the heterogeneity of location and grain-production areas. Based on a comprehensive review of the existing literature, this study applies spatial econometric methods and utilizes panel data from 1828 counties in China from 2013 to 2017 for statistical analysis and empirical research. First, this study analyzed the temporal characteristics and spatial correlations of carbon emissions, carbon sinks, and protected agriculture at county level. Subsequently, it empirically analyzed the impact of protected agriculture on carbon emissions and sinks. Based on this, further analyses were conducted from the perspective of regional and grain-production area heterogeneity. The results showed that 1) carbon emissions in Chinese counties exhibited an overall pattern of higher levels in the east and lower levels in the west, while carbon sinks showed the opposite pattern. The spatial pattern of protected agriculture area followed the same trend as carbon emissions, and all three variables exhibited significant positive spatial correlations. A high-high agglomeration of carbon emissions was concentrated in the eastern region, with the center of gravity leaning towards the northwest. A high-high agglomeration of carbon sinks was concentrated in the western, northeastern and southwestern regions, whereas a high-high agglomeration of protected agriculture was concentrated in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region. 2) Protected agriculture area had a “U”-shaped direct and indirect effect on carbon emissions, indicating a significant carbon reduction effect. However, both the direct and indirect effects of protected agriculture area on carbon sinks were significantly negative, suggesting an insignificant sequestration effect. 3) The roles of protected agriculture in carbon reduction and sequestration exhibited significant heterogeneity. In terms of regional heterogeneity, protected agriculture significantly promoted carbon emission reduction in the eastern and northeastern regions, while significantly inhibiting carbon sinks in the central and western regions. Regarding the heterogeneity in grain-production areas, protected agriculture area had a significant carbon reduction effect in the major grain-production and sales areas, but its sequestration effect was not significant in the three grain-production areas. This study suggests that counties should accelerate the promotion of green development in protected agriculture, develop low-carbon agriculture according to local conditions, strengthen cooperation and communication on carbon reduction and sequestration between regions, effectively promote the green and sustainable development of protected agriculture, and achieve the goals of carbon reduction and sequestration.ation.

     

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