泉涛, 章成果, 冯颖, 李红军, 沈彦俊. “23·7”特大暴雨对河北平原玉米产量的影响研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(0): 1−10. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230703
引用本文: 泉涛, 章成果, 冯颖, 李红军, 沈彦俊. “23·7”特大暴雨对河北平原玉米产量的影响研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(0): 1−10. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230703
QUAN T, ZHANG C G, FENG Y, LI H J, SHEN Y J. Impact of the “July 23” extreme heavy precipitation on maize yield in the Hebei Plain[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(0): 1−10. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230703
Citation: QUAN T, ZHANG C G, FENG Y, LI H J, SHEN Y J. Impact of the “July 23” extreme heavy precipitation on maize yield in the Hebei Plain[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(0): 1−10. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230703

“23·7”特大暴雨对河北平原玉米产量的影响研究

Impact of the “July 23” extreme heavy precipitation on maize yield in the Hebei Plain

  • 摘要: 洪涝是一种毁坏性巨大的自然灾害, 对粮食生产构成严重威胁。受台风“杜苏芮”和“卡奴”的影响, 2023年7月29日至8月1日期间京津冀地区出现百年一遇的特大暴雨洪水灾害, 给京津冀地区造成了重大损失, 导致部分农田几乎绝收。为评估极端暴雨事件对当地粮食产量的影响, 本研究使用MODIS MOD09GQ数据分析了暴雨前后的NDVI变化, 据此划定了本次暴雨造成的受灾农田区域(主要在河北平原)及其受灾程度, 同时结合2016—2020年玉米种植空间分布、农业统计数据和NDVI数据, 估算了受灾农田区域未发生暴雨和发生暴雨后两种情景下的玉米产量, 进而评估了本次暴雨造成的玉米产量损失。主要得到以下结论: 1)暴雨发生后, 河北平原受灾农田区域的NDVI普遍减少在0~0.35之间, 相比之下, 未受灾农田区域的NDVI均有所增加。2)本次强降雨导致河北平原约有24万hm2农田受到影响, 绝产面积约13万hm2, 减产面积约11万hm2。3)蓄滞洪区周边的22个县(市、区)是本次暴雨的主要受灾区域, 据回归分析结果, 本次暴雨可能造成的玉米产量损失多达22万t, 且92%的产量损失是由作物绝产所致。本研究为遥感手段估算极端降雨导致的粮食减产提供了一个快速且可靠的计算框架, 同时强调了极端降雨对粮食安全的巨大威胁性。

     

    Abstract: Flooding is a devastating natural disaster, which poses a serious threat to food production. Affected by Typhoons Doksuri and Khanun, between 29 July and 1 August 2023, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region experienced an unprecedently heavy precipitation and consequent enormous flooding, directly causing almost grain failure. In order to explore the impact of this heavy precipitation on local grain yield, this study used MODIS MOD09GQ product to compare the NDVI difference before and after the heavy precipitation in the Hebei Plain (main flood-submerged area), and accordingly, the area of submerged farmland and degree of grain failure were analyzed. The spatial distribution of maize (main summer crop locally), agricultural statistics and NDVI data in 2016-2020 were also combined to estimate maize yields under the two scenarios, i.e., with and without heavy precipitation, by which we estimated the yield loss of maize due to the heavy precipitation. The main conclusions were as follows: 1) After the heavy precipitation, the NDVI of the affected farmland decreased in the range of 0-0.35, while the NDVI of the unaffected farmland showed varying-degrees of increases in the Hebei Plain. 2) In the Hebei Plain, there were approximately 240,000 hm2 of crops affected by the heavy precipitation, with complete crop failure in 130,000 hm2 of farmland and moderate crop failure in 110,000 hm2 of farmland. 3) An estimated 22 counties around the flood detention basins were mostly affected by the heavy precipitation. According to the results of the regression analyses, this heavy precipitation event caused a 220,000 t of potential loss of maize, and 92% of the yield loss was due to crop extinction. This study provides a fast and reliable assessment framework on how to use remotely-sensed approach to estimate flood-induced grain reduction, and further emphasized the huge harmfulness of extreme climate event on food security.

     

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