熊鹰, 但玉玲, 王斌, 向智敏, 刘宗敏. 四川省种植业碳排放现状、动态演进及预测[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(0): 1−12. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230750
引用本文: 熊鹰, 但玉玲, 王斌, 向智敏, 刘宗敏. 四川省种植业碳排放现状、动态演进及预测[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(0): 1−12. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230750
XIONG Y, DAN Y L, WANG B, XIANG Z M, LIU Z M. The situation, dynamic evolution and prediction of carbon emissions in planting industry of Sichuan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(0): 1−12. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230750
Citation: XIONG Y, DAN Y L, WANG B, XIANG Z M, LIU Z M. The situation, dynamic evolution and prediction of carbon emissions in planting industry of Sichuan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(0): 1−12. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230750

四川省种植业碳排放现状、动态演进及预测

The situation, dynamic evolution and prediction of carbon emissions in planting industry of Sichuan Province

  • 摘要: 加强种植业碳排放测算, 可为推进种植业绿色低碳转型提供重要依据。本文针对种植业从投入到产出的全过程, 基于农地利用碳排放、稻田CH4排放和农地N2O排放3类主要来源, 运用碳排放系数法测算2010—2021年四川省种植业碳排放量, 从时序特征和地区差异揭示四川省种植业碳排放特征, 采用核密度分析法剖析四川省种植业碳排放动态演进趋势, 运用灰色预测模型预测2022—2030年四川省种植业碳排放量和碳排放强度。结果表明: 1)四川省种植业碳排放量处于波动下降趋势且碳排放强度持续降低, 四川省种植业碳排放以农地利用和稻田CH4碳排放为主, 2021年较2010年农地利用碳排放比重略有减少, 而稻田CH4和农地N2O的碳排放比重有所上升。2)四川省各市州种植业碳排放量和强度差异明显, 2021年碳排放量最高的南充市与最低的甘孜州相差25.69倍, 碳排放强度最高的巴中市与最低的甘孜州相差近4倍。3)四川省五大区域种植业碳排放动态演进呈现差异化特征, 成都平原、川南、川东北、攀西、川西北五大区域种植业碳排放强度均呈下降趋势, 但下降速度和变化幅度各异, 总体上五大区域内碳排放强度的差距在逐步缩小。4)四川省种植业碳排放量和碳排放强度预计保持稳步下降态势, 估计到2025年和2030年四川省种植业碳排放量将减少约68.72万t和137.84万t, 碳排放强度将减少约0.13 t·万元−1和0.26 t·万元−1。基于此, 本文提出四川省种植业碳减排主要是减少化肥投入和稻田CH4引起的碳排放, 需因地制宜采取差异化的减排措施, 强化农业科技创新和推广, 提升四川省种植业绿色低碳整体发展水平。

     

    Abstract: Strengthening the carbon emission calculation in the planting industry provides support for advancing its green and low-carbon transformation. Focusing on the entire process of the planting industry from input to output, this study utilized the carbon emission coefficients to estimate the carbon emissions of planting industry in Sichuan Province from 2010—2021. This estimation included carbon emissions from three main sources, namely, agricultural land use, rice field CH4 emissions, and agricultural land N2O emissions. The aim was to reveal the temporal characteristics and regional differences in carbon emissions of the planting industry in Sichuan province. Further, kernel density analysis was employed to analyze the dynamic evolution trend of carbon emissions in the planting industry of Sichuan Province. In addition, the grey prediction model was utilized to predict the carbon emissions and intensity in planting industry of Sichuan Province from 2022 to 2030. The results showed that 1) Carbon emissions in the planting industry of Sichuan Province were in a fluctuating downward trend and carbon emission intensity continued to decrease. Agricultural land use and rice field CH4 emissions were the primary contributors to carbon emissions in the planting industry. There was a decrease in the proportion of carbon emissions from agricultural land use in 2021 compared to 2010, while the proportions of rice field CH4 and agricultural land N2O emissions had increased. 2) Significant differences existed in carbon emissions and intensity among cities and prefectures in Sichuan Province. In 2021, the city with the highest carbon emissions, Nanchong, differed by 25.69 times from the lowest, Ganzi Prefecture, while the city with the highest carbon emission intensity, Bazhong, differed nearly four times from the lowest, Ganzi Prefecture. 3) The dynamic evolution of carbon emission in the planting industry inacross five regions in Sichuan Province displayed different characteristics. Carbon emission intensity in the Chengdu plain, south Sichuan, northeast Sichuan, Panzhihua-Xichang and northwest Sichuan showed a decreasing trend, albeit with varying rates and extents of decline. Overall, the disparity in carbon emission intensity among these five regions was gradually narrowing. 4) The projected trend suggested a steady decrease in both carbon emissions and intensity in the planting industry of Sichuan Province. It was estimated that by 2025 and 2030, the carbon emissions in the planting industry of Sichuan Province will decrease by about 687,200 tons and 1,378,400 tons, respectively, while the carbon emission intensity will decrease by about 0.13 tons per 10,000 yuan and 0.26 tons per 10,000 yuan. Based on these results, this study put forward that the carbon emission reduction in the planting industry of Sichuan Province was mainly to reduce the carbon emissions caused by chemical fertilizer input and rice field CH4. Meanwhile, tailored reduction measures need to be adopted according to local conditions, and agricultural scientific and technological innovation and promotion should be strengthened, so as to improve the green and low-carbon development in the planting industry of Sichuan Province.

     

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