黄书苑, 傅一敏, 章语嫣, 杨建州. 长江流域水—能源—粮食—森林系统耦合协调发展研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(9): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240016
引用本文: 黄书苑, 傅一敏, 章语嫣, 杨建州. 长江流域水—能源—粮食—森林系统耦合协调发展研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(9): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240016
HUANG S Y, FU Y M, ZHANG Y Y, YANG J Z. Research on the coupling and coordinated development of Water—Energy—Food—Forest system in the Yangtze River Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(9): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240016
Citation: HUANG S Y, FU Y M, ZHANG Y Y, YANG J Z. Research on the coupling and coordinated development of Water—Energy—Food—Forest system in the Yangtze River Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(9): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240016

长江流域水—能源—粮食—森林系统耦合协调发展研究

Research on the coupling and coordinated development of Water—Energy—Food—Forest system in the Yangtze River Basin

  • 摘要: 研究长江流域水—能源—粮食—森林(WEFF)系统耦合机理及协调发展时空演变, 有助于实现长江流域高质量发展, 以便于更好地支撑和服务中国式现代化。本文在阐述WEFF系统耦合协调发展机理的基础上, 运用综合评价指数模型、耦合协调度模型及全局空间自相关分析测度2003—2021年长江流域WEFF系统综合评价指数、耦合度及耦合协调度并分析其时空特征, 进一步利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测了未来5年发展情况。本文主要结果如下: 1)时序变化上, 耦合阶段均处于磨合阶段, 耦合协调类型从濒临失调转为勉强协调。2)空间差异上, 各省(直辖市)耦合度均处于磨合阶段, 耦合协调度大部分处于濒临失调、勉强协调和初级协调类型; 多数年份耦合协调空间集聚状态明显, 但空间分布格局缺乏稳定。3)发展模拟上看, 基本延续了目前的耦合协调发展变化趋势, 但各省(直辖市)发展情况各异。统筹推进经济社会发展和生态环境保护、建立跨区域综合协商机制和健全跨部门沟通协商机制有助于保障流域资源安全、维护生态平衡、实现区域可持续发展, 进一步推动长江流域高质量发展。

     

    Abstract: Water, energy, food, and forests are critical strategic resources necessary for the sustainable development of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). It is essential to examine the interconnected relationship among these four elements to achieve regional sustainable resource management. This study investigates the coupling mechanism of the Water—Energy—Food—Forest (WEFF) system in the YRB, as well as its spatial and temporal evolution in coordinated development, which significantly contributes to the high-quality development of YRB and promotes Chinese-style modernization. This paper performs an analysis of the coupling and coordination development mechanism in the WEFF system. Based on this, methods such as the comprehensive evaluation index model, coupling coordination degree model, and global spatial autocorrelation are employed to assess the comprehensive evaluation index, coupling degree, and coupling coordination degree of the WEFF system in the YRB from 2003 to 2021. Furthermore, the spatial-temporal characteristics is analyzed, and the grey prediction GM (1, 1) model is used to forecast the development trajectory for the upcoming five years. The primary findings indicated that: 1) Regarding changes in the time series, the comprehensive evaluation index of the WEFF system in the YRB exhibited an unstable state, with an overall trend showing a gradual increase. The degree of coupling initially increased and then decreased, with all stages of coupling occurring during running-in stage. Similarly, the coordination degree of coupling showed an initial rise followed by a decline, and the type of coupling coordination changed from imminent imbalance to barely coordination. 2) In terms of spatial differences, the comprehensive evaluation index of the WEFF system and four subsystems in each province (municipalities directly under the central government) within the YRB was at a moderate level ranging from 0.2 to 0.5. The comprehensive evaluation index of the WEFF system has been analyzed, revealing that Qinghai Province records the highest indices overall, and Jiangsu Province ranks lowest in the entire system. Among the subsystems, the water, food, and forest subsystems of Qinghai Province exhibits the highest indice, while the energy subsystem of Sichuan Province leads. Conversely, the water, energy, food, and forest subsystems of Shanghai Province records the lowest. The coupling degree of the WEFF system is not high; it predominantly situated in running-in stage with medium coordination but significant differences. Most provinces and cities exhibit imminent imbalance, barely coordination, or primary coordination stage. Over most years, there was noticeable spatial clustering in coupling coordination, while distribution pattern was unstable. 3) Regarding development simulation, the coupling coordination development status of the WEFF in the YRB from 2022 to 2026 closely resembles the developmental trend observed from 2003 to 2021, with variations among provinces and direct-controlled municipalities within the basin.Therefore, this paper proposes the following policy recommendations to enhance coordination among systems with high-quality development in the YRB: 1) To ensure ecological protection aligns with the advancement of economic and social development, promoting the ecological restoration of the Yangtze River to facilitate a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. 2) To establish a cross-regional comprehensive negotiation mechanism to rationally determine functional positioning and development directions, leveraging the industrial location advantages of diverse regions and enhancing coordination and cooperation of resources across regions. 3) To enhance cross-departmental communication and negotiation mechanisms for coordination between policy and practice, while actively guiding the efficient and rational allocation of water, energy, food, and forest resources.

     

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