朱美荣, 王淦秋, 向文凯, 尚杰. 农业社会化服务对农业碳排放的影响及其空间特征[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(7): 1−14. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240022
引用本文: 朱美荣, 王淦秋, 向文凯, 尚杰. 农业社会化服务对农业碳排放的影响及其空间特征[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(7): 1−14. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240022
ZHU M R, WANG G Q, XIANG W K, SHANG J. Effects and its spatial characteristics of socialized agriculture services on agricultural carbon emissions[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(7): 1−14. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240022
Citation: ZHU M R, WANG G Q, XIANG W K, SHANG J. Effects and its spatial characteristics of socialized agriculture services on agricultural carbon emissions[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(7): 1−14. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240022

农业社会化服务对农业碳排放的影响及其空间特征

Effects and its spatial characteristics of socialized agriculture services on agricultural carbon emissions

  • 摘要: 农业碳排放是中国实现“双碳”目标和高质量发展的重要议题, 农业社会化服务充当了衔接小农与现代农业的重要角色, 能显著抑制农业碳排放的增加。本文以2007—2021年省级面板数据为基础, 综合利用因子测算法、拉开档次法、双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型、空间计量分析等方法测算中国各省份(除中国香港、澳门、台湾外)农业碳排放和农业社会化服务水平, 检验了农业社会化服务对农业碳排放的影响机制、影响路径、空间溢出效应和效应溢出范围。研究发现: 1)从总体上来看, 随时间推移各地区农业碳排放量整体呈先上升后下降的趋势, 而农业社会化服务水平则逐年提高, 并对农业碳排放表现出显著抑制作用, 但这种作用存在显著的地区差异性, 呈由东向西逐渐减弱的态势; 2)在农业社会化服务抑制农业碳排放的不同路径中, 农地流转和农业经营规模均能发挥部分中介效应, 分别达到总效应的13%和18%; 3)从空间效应上来看, 邻近地区的农业社会化服务作用具有空间溢出效应, 并显著地抑制本地农业碳排放, 其空间溢出效应随经济距离的增加而增强, 2 d以上经济距离的空间溢出效应可达全部溢出效应的26.2%。基于以上结果, 地方政府应因地制宜建设农业社会化服务体系; 适度提高农地流转, 降低农业经营规模, 完善土地全程托管服务; 发挥地区产业优势, 鼓励跨区农业社会化服务, 加强地区间经济一体化合作, 推动资源的跨区高效配置。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural carbon emissions represent a significant challenge for China in its pursuit of the “dual carbon” goals. These goals are essential for transitioning to high-quality development in China. Within this context, socialized agricultural services have emerged as a pivotal element, bridging the gap between small farmers and modern agricultural practices and significantly inhibiting the increase in agricultural carbon emissions. Based on an analysis of theories about socialized agricultural services, agricultural carbon emissions, and provincial panel data from 2007 to 2021, this study comprehensively uses the factor measurement algorithm, spreading grade method, two-way fixed effects model, mediation effects model, and spatial econometrics (especially the spatial Durbin model). These methods were employed to measure the amount of agricultural carbon emissions and the estimated extent of socialized agricultural services in each province was considered. Additionally, this study examines the impact of socialized agricultural services on agricultural carbon emissions, the specific pathways through which this impact occurs, the spatial effects and characteristics of the main effect, and the spatial range over which these spatial effects are observed. The results show that: 1) Overall, agricultural carbon emissions in most provinces show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing during the research period, while the levels of socialized agricultural services of each province are increasing during the same time; socialized agriculture services play a significant role in inhibiting agricultural carbon emissions; the estimations of the inhibitions exhibit differences for the representative provinces in different locations from all the provinces selected in the study; the representative provinces from eastern provinces show a reinforced effect, while the western provinces show an effect that seems weaker. 2) In the process of inhibiting agricultural carbon emissions through various pathways of socialized agricultural services, the mediation roles of rural land transfer and the reduction of operation scale of agriculture are significant as they can play partial mediation effects overall. Specifically, the mediation effects of rural land transfer accounted for 13% of the total effect, while the reduction in small farmers contributed to 18% of the total effect. 3) From the estimation of spatial effects, the role of socialized agricultural services shows spillover effects to adjacent areas. Socialized agricultural services from other areas can significantly inhibit local agricultural carbon emissions. The spatial spillover effect increases with the increase of economic distance. Furthermore, 73.8% and 26.2% of the total spill over effect of socialized agricultural services on agricultural carbon emissions was measured under an economic distance of 2.0 d and beyond 2.0 d, respectively. Therefore, the government should build systems tailored to the local conditions of socialized agricultural services. Governments should aim to moderately increase the transfer rate of rural land, weaken the scale of small farmers, improve the full process services of rural land custody, give full play to regional industrial advantages, encourage cross-regional socialized agriculture services, strengthen the integration cooperation of regional economies, and promote efficient cross-regional allocation of resources.

     

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