赵金彩, 杜永猛, 任世鑫, 段锴丰, 任芮莹. 乡村振兴对黄河流域农业碳排放的空间溢出及门槛效应研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(9): 1−14. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240060
引用本文: 赵金彩, 杜永猛, 任世鑫, 段锴丰, 任芮莹. 乡村振兴对黄河流域农业碳排放的空间溢出及门槛效应研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(9): 1−14. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240060
ZHAO J C, DU Y M, REN S X, DUAN K F, REN R Y. Study on the spatial spillover and threshold effects of rural revitalization on agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(9): 1−14. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240060
Citation: ZHAO J C, DU Y M, REN S X, DUAN K F, REN R Y. Study on the spatial spillover and threshold effects of rural revitalization on agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(9): 1−14. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240060

乡村振兴对黄河流域农业碳排放的空间溢出及门槛效应研究

Study on the spatial spillover and threshold effects of rural revitalization on agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin

  • 摘要: 厘清乡村振兴对黄河流域农业碳排放的影响, 对于黄河流域高质量发展和农业低碳发展均具有重要意义。本文基于黄河流域2001—2021年间88个地级市的面板数据, 采用空间计量模型和门槛回归模型分析乡村振兴对黄河流域农业碳排放的影响和空间溢出效应, 并对二者的非线性关系和区域异质性进行了分析。结果显示, 乡村振兴对农业碳排放具有显著的促进作用, 同时表现出显著的负向空间溢出效应, 且乡村振兴对农业碳排放的空间溢出效应大于直接效应, 此外产业结构和城镇化对农业碳排放具有负向影响, 种植规模、化肥施用强度和农业经济发展对农业碳排放呈正向影响。农业技术进步在乡村振兴对农业碳排放的影响中具有门槛效应, 当农业技术进步越过门槛值时, 乡村振兴对农业碳排放的影响由正转负。从异质性角度来看, 在粮食主产区, 乡村振兴对农业碳排放表现为抑制作用, 而在非粮食主产区, 乡村振兴对农业碳排放表现为促进作用。就地理区位而言, 乡村振兴对黄河中游和下游区域农业碳排放表现为抑制作用, 对黄河上游区域表现为促进作用。因此, 应重视农业碳排放的区域差异, 强化农业技术进步在乡村振兴过程中的减排作用, 并因地制宜采取措施推动农业碳减排,进而实现黄河流域农业绿色低碳发展。

     

    Abstract: The extreme weather changes caused by excessive carbon dioxide emissions have attracted the attention of governments around the world. Agricultural carbon emissions are an important source of carbon emissions, and rural revitalization is an important strategy for promoting comprehensive rural development in China. The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier and economic zone in China, so clarifying the impact of rural revitalization on agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin is of great significance for both the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and the low-carbon development of agriculture. Based on the panel data of 88 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin during the period of 2001—2021, we established evaluation indicators for rural revitalization, measured rural revitalization in the Yellow River Basin by using entropy method, and calculated agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin by using IPCC carbon emission factor method, in addition, we adopted spatial econometric model and threshold regression model to analyze the impact and spatial spillover effect of rural revitalization on agricultural carbon emission in the Yellow River Basin, and analyzed the non-linear relationship and regional heterogeneity between them. The spatial econometric model results showed during the research period, the total agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of first increasing and then decreasing, according to agricultural inputs, the use of fertilizers emitted the most greenhouse gases; by region, the main grain producing areas had the highest emissions; by province, Henan and Shandong have significantly higher emissions than other provinces, from the perspective of spatial characteristics, rural revitalization and agricultural carbon emissions had spatial clustering characteristics of the same type. The spatial econometric model results showed that rural revitalization had a significant promotion effect on agricultural carbon emissions, while exhibiting a significant negative spatial spillover effect, in addition, industrial structure and urbanization had a negative impact on agricultural carbon emissions, while planting scale, fertilizer application intensity, and agricultural economic development had a positive impact on agricultural carbon emissions, the industrial structure, planting scale, fertilizer application intensity, and agricultural economic development had a negative spatial spillover effect on agricultural carbon emissions, while urbanization had a positive spatial spillover effect on agricultural carbon emissions. Threshold model results showed that rural revitalization had a threshold effect of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions, and when agricultural technological progress exceeded the threshold, the impact of rural revitalisation on agricultural carbon emissions changed from positive to negative. From the perspective of heterogeneity, rural revitalization had significant heterogeneity in agricultural carbon emissions, specifically, rural revitalization had an inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions in the main food-producing areas, while had a promotional effect on agricultural carbon emissions in non-main food-producing areas. In terms of geographic location, rural revitalization had an inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin, and had a promotional effect in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin. This study provided theoretical reference and policy basis for the promotion of rural revitalization strategy and low-carbon agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin.

     

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