范振楠, 覃朝晖, 余思明. 极端气温对粮食生产韧性的影响效应研究−基于绿色金融视角[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(5): 896−910. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240088
引用本文: 范振楠, 覃朝晖, 余思明. 极端气温对粮食生产韧性的影响效应研究−基于绿色金融视角[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(5): 896−910. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240088
FAN Z N, QIN Z H, YU S M. Impact of extreme temperature on the resilience of grain production: perspectives on green finance[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(5): 896−910. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240088
Citation: FAN Z N, QIN Z H, YU S M. Impact of extreme temperature on the resilience of grain production: perspectives on green finance[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(5): 896−910. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240088

极端气温对粮食生产韧性的影响效应研究基于绿色金融视角

Impact of extreme temperature on the resilience of grain production: perspectives on green finance

  • 摘要: 随着极端气温事件增多, 粮食生产受到严重威胁。本文基于2012—2021年中国除港澳台地区的31个省(自治区、直辖市)面板数据测算粮食生产韧性, 采用面板Tobit模型论证极端气温对粮食生产韧性的影响, 并运用调节效应模型检验绿色金融发挥的调节效应。研究发现, 极端气温显著降低了粮食生产韧性水平, 且极端高温对粮食生产韧性的负向影响更大。机制分析表明, 绿色金融在极端气温对粮食生产韧性的影响中发挥负向调节作用。异质性分析显示, 在粮食主产区和产销平衡区, 极端气温对粮食生产韧性的抑制作用更明显, 并且极端高温的不利影响大于极端低温; 从粮食生产韧性的3个维度来看, 极端高温显著降低了抵抗力和适应力, 极端低温显著降低了适应力。绿色金融调节效应也呈现明显的异质性, 其在粮食主产区、产销平衡区以及适应力维度均具有显著的负向调节作用; 但在主销区调节作用不显著, 且在变革力维度仅缓解了极端低温对粮食生产韧性的不利影响。据此, 为了应对极端气温的不利影响, 未来可通过持续提高粮食生产保障水平、加强粮食生产领域绿色金融支持力度、制定差异化粮食生产韧性提升方案, 来促进粮食生产韧性水平提高。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of the intensifying effects of global climate change, the number of extreme temperature events are gradually increasing, posing a severe challenge to grain production. Clarifying the impacts and mechanisms of extreme temperature on the resilience of grain production is of great significance for responding to these temperature events, thereby improving the grain production resilience and ensuring food security. Grain production is an important component of the grain system, and existing research has not thoroughly analyzed the relationship and underlying mechanisms between extreme temperature and grain production resilience. Therefore, based on panel data from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China, excluding Hong Kong of China, Macao of China, and Taiwan of China, from 2012 to 2021, this article used the entropy method to calculate the resilience level of grain production and the level of green finance. A panel Tobit model was constructed to empirically analyze the impact of extreme temperature on grain production resilience, and a moderating effect model was used to examine the regulatory effect of green finance on the impact of extreme temperature on grain production resilience. The results indicated that: 1) extreme temperature had a significant negative impact on the resilience of grain production, and the negative impact of extremely high temperature was stronger than that of extremely low temperature. Using observable variables to measure the likelihood of bias caused by unobserved variables alleviated endogeneity issues that may arise from omitted variables, and a series of robustness tests were conducted. Thus, this conclusion is valid. 2) A mechanistic analysis showed that green finance alleviated the adverse effects of extreme temperature on the grain production resilience. 3) The impact of extreme temperature on grain production resilience varied significantly across different functional areas of grain production and grain production resilience dimensions. Extreme temperature notably weakened the grain production resilience in the major grain-producing areas and production-sale balance areas. Moreover, the adverse effects of extremely high temperature surpassed those of extremely low temperature. However, extreme temperature did not significantly affect the grain production resilience in the major selling areas. Concerning the various dimensions of grain production resilience, both extremely high and low temperature significantly reduced adaptability, while extremely high temperature notably diminished resistance. 4) In terms of the impact of extreme temperature on grain production resilience, green finance was found to exert a significant regulatory effect on the main grain-producing areas, production-sale balance areas, and the adaptability dimension. Specifically, green finance positively regulated the impact of extremely low temperature on grain production resilience and the capacities of change and adapt. However, in major selling areas, the regulatory effect of green finance was not significant. Based on these results, we recommend enhancing grain production security, bolstering support for green finance in the grain production sector, and devising tailored strategies to enhance grain production resilience in response to escalating extreme temperature.

     

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