仲嘉维, 郑军. 我国省域农业生态与粮食安全的协同演化研究−基于哈肯模型的实证分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(9): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240203
引用本文: 仲嘉维, 郑军. 我国省域农业生态与粮食安全的协同演化研究−基于哈肯模型的实证分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(9): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240203
ZHONG J W, ZHENG J. The co-evolution of agroecology and food security at provincial level in China—An empirical analysis based on the Haken model[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(9): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240203
Citation: ZHONG J W, ZHENG J. The co-evolution of agroecology and food security at provincial level in China—An empirical analysis based on the Haken model[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(9): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240203

我国省域农业生态与粮食安全的协同演化研究基于哈肯模型的实证分析

The co-evolution of agroecology and food security at provincial level in China—An empirical analysis based on the Haken model

  • 摘要: 农业生态和粮食安全均深刻影响着我国农业农村现代化进程, 探讨农业生态与粮食安全的协同演化态势和内在机理, 可助力我国农业强国目标实现。本文以2011—2022年中国30个省(不包含西藏、香港、澳门和台湾)为研究靶向, 建立农业生态与粮食安全评价体系, 首先利用熵权法和空间统计工具测度二者发展水平, 然后利用哈肯模型探寻协同系统的序参量及协同水平, 最后利用Dagum 基尼系数揭示协同现状的空间差异及来源。本研究结果表明: 1)我国农业生态与粮食安全水平均呈不断上升的趋势; 二者的重心及迁移轨迹也较为相似, 均向东北方向迁移, 表明未来东北方向可能是二者协同的重点区域; 2)农业生态为农业生态与粮食安全协同系统的序参量, 主导着协同系统的演化; 2011—2022年我国农业生态与粮食安全协同度整体呈稳中有进的态势, 大致经历“初级协同期—中级协同期—高级协同期”的演变历程。分地区来看, 东部地区协同度内部差异最大, 其中海南省一直处于东部最低值。中部地区内部差异最小, 表明中部各地区正合力推进二者协同; 空间格局上, 各地区二者协同度差异明显, 均值呈 “东北>中部>东部>西部”的分布格局; 3)农业生态与粮食安全协同度空间差异正逐步增大, 地区间差异是总体差异的主要来源, 尤其是东部—西部地区间的差异最为显著。该文认为农业生态与粮食安全协同发展过程中农业生态的推动力度更为显著, 针对各地区差异显著的问题, 应因区施策着重注意农业生态的重要地位, 以此引导农业生态与粮食安全高质量协同演进。

     

    Abstract: Both agroecology and food security have a profound impact on the process of agricultural and rural modernization in China, and exploring the co-evolution trend and internal mechanism of agroecology and food security can help China achieve the goal of making China a strong agricultural country and exploring possible ways to achieve high-quality synergy between agroecology and food security. This study establishes an evaluation system for agroecology and food security, taking 30 provinces in China (autonomous regions and municipalities, excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2011 to 2022 as the research target. First, entropy weight method and spatial statistical tools are used to measure the development level of agroecology and food security, then Haken model is used to explore the sequence parameters and cooperation level of the collaborative system, and Dagum Gini coefficient is used to reveal the spatial differences and sources of the current situation of the cooperation of agroecology and food security. The key findings of this research are as below. 1) The level of agroecology and food security in China has generally exhibited a progressive trend. The center of gravity and migration trajectories of agroecology and food security are also similar, with both migrating towards the northeast direction. The indication suggests that the future may see the northeast direction as a potential source for both parties to collaborate. 2) Agroecology is the sequence parameter of the synergistic system of agroecology and food security, which dominates the evolution of the synergistic system. This reflects the importance of agroecology in the relationship between agroecology and food security. From 2011 to 2022, the synergy between agroecology and food security in China showed a steady and progressive trend, and it roughly experienced the evolution process of “primary synergy period—intermediate synergy period—advanced synergy period”. In terms of regions, the internal difference of synergy degree in the eastern region is the largest, and Hainan Province has always been at the lowest value in the eastern region, which should be worthy of major attention. The difference within the central region was the smallest, indicating that the central regions were working together to promote the synergy between agroecology and food security. In terms of spatial pattern, there are obvious differences in the degree of synergy between agroecology and food security and the mean value showed a distribution pattern of “northeast>central>east>west”. 3) The spatial differences in the level of synergy between agroecology and food security are gradually increasing and the regional differences are the main source of the overall differences. The differences between the east and west regions are particularly significant. To realize the coordinated development among regions is an important way to solve the spatial difference between agroecology and food security in China. This paper argues that during the development process of synergizing agroecology systems and food security systems more emphasis should be placed on promoting agroecology systems as they play a more prominent role. Addressing significant regional disparities requires special attention to be paid to recognizing importance given to agroecology systems so as to guide high-quality coordinated development between agroecology systems and food security systems.

     

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