吴婷婷. 南方稻农气候变化适应行为影响因素分析——基于苏皖两省364户稻农的调查数据[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2015, 23(12): 1588-1596. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.150869
引用本文: 吴婷婷. 南方稻农气候变化适应行为影响因素分析——基于苏皖两省364户稻农的调查数据[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2015, 23(12): 1588-1596. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.150869
WU Tingting. Empirical analysis of farmers’ adaptation to climate change in southern rice areas of China— Based on household survey data in Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2015, 23(12): 1588-1596. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.150869
Citation: WU Tingting. Empirical analysis of farmers’ adaptation to climate change in southern rice areas of China— Based on household survey data in Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2015, 23(12): 1588-1596. DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.150869

南方稻农气候变化适应行为影响因素分析——基于苏皖两省364户稻农的调查数据

Empirical analysis of farmers’ adaptation to climate change in southern rice areas of China— Based on household survey data in Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces

  • 摘要: 气候变化使农业生产条件发生了重大改变, 不仅威胁粮食安全, 而且导致农户收入风险增加。因此, 探讨户主特征、家庭特征、社会资本等因素对农户气候变化适应行为的影响, 了解农户适应行为的决策机制, 对政府科学制定农业应对气候变化政策具有重要的参考价值。本研究以江苏和安徽两省水稻主产区为研究区域, 通过当面访谈方式, 获取364个农户调查问卷数据。采用泊松回归方法, 使用STATA统计分析软件, 分析气候变化背景下农户种植行为的适应机制及其影响因素。结果表明, 农户最可能采用的气候变化适应措施是采用优良品种, 其次是转向非农就业、修缮灌溉沟渠、改变灌溉频率、调整插播时间、购买农业保险、采用保护性耕作技术、多样化种植、调整施肥施药行为和改种其他作物。农户采用气候变化适应性措施的项数介于0~8之间, 平均为4.49项。没有采用任何气候变化适应措施的首要原因是适应成本较高, 其次是不知道如何适应, 最后是劳动力数量有限。模型结果显示, 户主性别、受教育年限、家庭规模、收入结构、种植规模、社会资本、气象信息和农技服务等因素对农户适应气候变化行为具有显著影响。为提高农户适应气候变化的能力, 宜从政府政策和农户自身两方面着手。前者需要政府从农业补贴、农业保险、农村基础设施建设、耕地流转、粮食收购价格、农业科技服务体系等方面给予政策引导, 后者需要农户自身加强包括社会网络、社会信任和社会规范方面的建设, 从根本上提升应对自然风险的能力。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural production conditions have undergone major changes because of climatic change. This has threatened not only food security, but also the farmers’ income. This study investigated the characteristics of household heads, families and social capital, which influenced farmers’ adaptive behavior to climate change, in order to understand famers’ adaptive behavior to climate change and provide a reference for government to make policy scientifically. In this study, rice producing areas of Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces were investigated through interpersonal interviews of 364 households. Using the Poisson Regression model in STATA statistical software, the paper analyzed the factors influencing the farmers’ adaptive behaviors to climate change. According to the survey data, adaptive measures to climate change most likely used by farmers was planting excellent rice varieties, which was orderly followed by turning to off-farm employments, repairing irrigation channels, changing irrigation frequency, adjusting planting and sowing time, buying agricultural insurance, adopting conservation farming techniques, diversified planting, adjusting fertilizer and pesticide application pattern and switching to other crops. The number of adaptive measures taken by farmers ranged from 0 to 8, with an average of 4.49. The main reason for giving up taking adaptive measures to climate change for famers was high costs, followed by unawareness of any adaption methods and labor shortage. Model results indicated that the gender and education of household head, family size, income structure, planting scale, social capital, meteorological information and agricultural extension services significantly impacted the adaptive behaviors of farmers to climate change. In order to enhance the adaptive capacity of farmers, it was essential for government to increase agricultural subsidies, improve agricultural insurance, rural infrastructure and transfer of arable land, guarantee food purchase price, and strengthen agricultural technology extension system. Furthermore, the farmers should to strengthen themselves through the construction of social network, social trust and social norms, which also contributed to enhance their ability to cope with natural risks.

     

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