引用本文:赵雪雁,王伟军,万文玉,李 花.近50年气候变化对青藏高原青稞气候生产潜力的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(10):1329-1338
ZHAO Xueyan,WANG Weijun,WAN Wenyu,LI Hua.Influence of climate change on potential productivity of naked barley in the Tibetan Plateau in the past 50 years[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2015,23(10):1329-1338
DOI:10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.150552
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近50年气候变化对青藏高原青稞气候生产潜力的影响
赵雪雁, 王伟军, 万文玉, 李 花
西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院 兰州 730070
摘要:  基于青藏高原及周边106个气象站近50年的平均气温、降水量及日照时数等气象观测数据, 分析了青藏高原区1965年以来的气候变化趋势以及青稞生长季及关键生长期的气候变化趋势, 并采用线性倾向估计方法、Thornthwaite Memorial模型、ArcGIS和SPSS技术分析了青藏高原青稞的气候生产潜力及其时空变化特征, 探讨了青藏高原近50年气候变化对青稞发育过程和产量的影响机理及各气象要素对青稞气候生产潜力的影响。结果发现: 1)近50年来, 青藏高原区气温和降水均呈上升趋势(0.53 ℃10a1、7.8 mm10a-1), 且气温上升较显著, 降水增加较缓, 而日照时数呈波动下降趋势(16.9 h10a1); 2)青藏高原青稞生长季气温、降水均呈上升趋势(0.4 ℃10a-1、7.2 mm10a-1), 但日照时数呈下降趋势(15 h10a-1), 其中高原北部地区增温幅度较大, 而中部地区降水增加显著, 高原东北部日照时数下降较为明显; 3)青藏高原青稞气候生产潜力总体呈上升趋势(136.7 kghm-210a-1), 其中高原中部增加较显著, 高原东南部边缘、青海柴达木北部、西藏西北部呈下降趋势; 4)降水、气温均与青稞气候生产潜力呈显著正相关, 但日照时数与其呈负相关, 其中, 降水是影响青稞生长季和关键生长期气候生产潜力最为关键的因素, 气温影响次之。基于此, 就如何利用青藏高原青稞气候生产潜力的变化特点, 为提高该区青稞的实际产量提出了一系列建议措施。
关键词:  青藏高原 气候变化 青稞 气象因子 生长季 生产潜力
中图分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41361106)、教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-11-0910)和甘肃省高校基本科研业务费项目资助
Influence of climate change on potential productivity of naked barley in the Tibetan Plateau in the past 50 years
ZHAO Xueyan, WANG Weijun, WAN Wenyu, LI Hua
College of Geographical and Environmental Sciences, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Abstract:  This paper mainly analyzed climate trend during growth and crucial growth periods of naked barley in the Tibetan Plateau from 1965 to 2013. The study used average temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and other meteorological data from 106 meteorological stations allocated in the Tibetan Plateau for the past 50 years. In the paper, tendency analysis, Thornthwaite Memorial model, geographical information system (GIS), statistical product and service solution (SPSS) techniques were used to analyze potential climate productivity of naked barley. Then the features of temporal and spatial variations and the effects of climate change on the development and yield of naked barley as well as the effects of various meteorological factors on the climate potential productivity of naked barley in the Tibetan Plateau in the past 50 years were analyzed. The results showed, 1) there was an increasing trend in temperature (0.53 ℃10a-1) and precipitation (7.8 mm10a-1) in the Tibetan Plateau in the past 50 years. While temperature increased significantly, the increase in precipitation was not significant. Also there was an obvious decrease in sunshine duration (16.9 h10a-1). 2) While temperature (0.4 ℃10a-1) and precipitation (7.2 mm10a-1) increased during naked barley growth period in the Tibetan Plateau, sunshine duration (15 h10a-1) significantly decreased during naked barley growing season. There was an obvious warming tendency in the northern zone of the Tibetan Plateau, significant increase in precipitation in the central region of the Tibetan Plateau and then an obvious decline in sunshine duration in the northeast part of the Tibetan Plateau. 3) Climate potential productivity of naked barley increased in the Tibetan Plateau (136.7 kghm-210a-1) from 1965 to 2013. The magnitude of increase was larger for the central region than for other regions of the Tibetan Plateau. However, there was a decreasing trend in climate potential productivity of naked barley in the southeastern edge of the plateau, the northern part of Qaidam Basin in Qinghai Province and the northwestern region of Tibet. 4) Precipitation and temperature had significantly positive correlation with climate potential productivity of naked barley. Conversely, sunshine duration was negatively correlated with climate potential productivity of naked barley. Precipitation was the most critical factor affecting climate potential productivity of naked barley during the growing season and the key growth stages, followed by temperature. Finally, the study proposed measures to use of climatic factors to enhance climate potential productivity of naked barley.
Keyword:  Tibetan Plateau  Climate change  Naked barley  Meteorological factors  Growth period  Potential productivity
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