引用本文:金林雪,李云鹏,李丹,闫伟兄,吴向东.气候变化背景下内蒙古马铃薯关键生长期气候适宜性分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2018,26(1):38-48
JIN Linxue,LI Yunpeng,LI Dan,YAN Weixiong,WU Xiangdong.Suitability analysis of key potato growth stages in Inner Mongolia under climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2018,26(1):38-48
DOI:10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.170474
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气候变化背景下内蒙古马铃薯关键生长期气候适宜性分析
金林雪,李云鹏,李丹,闫伟兄,吴向东
作者单位E-mail
金林雪 内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心 呼和浩特 010050  
李云鹏 内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心 呼和浩特 010050 lyp5230@163.com 
李丹 内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心 呼和浩特 010050  
闫伟兄 内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心 呼和浩特 010050  
吴向东 内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心 呼和浩特 010050  
摘要:  内蒙古是我国马铃薯主产区之一,在气候变化背景下探讨马铃薯的区域适应性有重要的现实意义。依据内蒙古地区119个站点逐日气象观测数据,采用气候适宜度评估模型,分1961-1990年、1991-2015年2个气候年代对内蒙古马铃薯开花-可收期气候适宜度的空间特征及变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:1)1961-2015年内蒙古马铃薯开花-可收期综合气候适宜度为0.62,气候条件总体优越,且日照适宜度>温度适宜度>降水适宜度。2)从空间分布上看,温度适宜度由西向东呈"低-高-中"的带状分布,降水适宜度由西向东、由北向南递增,日照适宜度西高东低;综合光温水三要素影响,阴山南北麓东段及大兴安岭南麓区为气候适宜度的高值区,具有适宜生产马铃薯的气候资源优势。3)从年代变化上看,1961-1990年,综合气候适宜度除东部偏北及西部偏北呈微弱的下降,总体呈增加的趋势;1991-2015年大部地区综合适宜度由上升转为下降趋势。4)气候变化背景下,1961-2015年内蒙古马铃薯开花-可收期气候适宜性以0.004 0·(10a)-1的倾向率下降,其中日照适宜度基本持平,降水适宜度、气温适宜度呈不同程度的下降趋势,对马铃薯生长发育不利。因此,马铃薯开花-可收期应注意水热条件的管理,研究结果可为马铃薯气候资源利用与管理提供参考。
关键词:  气候变化  内蒙古  马铃薯  开花-可收期  气候适宜性  温度适宜度  日照适宜度  降水适宜度
中图分类号:S532
基金项目:内蒙古旱地作物脆弱性评价标准的建立及示范应用(GYHY201506016)和国内外作物产量气象预报专项资助
Suitability analysis of key potato growth stages in Inner Mongolia under climate change
JIN Linxue,LI Yunpeng,LI Dan,YAN Weixiong,WU Xiangdong
Abstract:  Inner Mongolia is the main potato planting area in China. It is therefore of practical importance to explore regional suitability of potato in Inner Mongolia under climate change. Based on the climatic suitability model, this paper analyzed the space-time characteristics of climate suitability for potato cultivation in Inner Mongolia using daily meteorological data (average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, wind speed, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure) from 119 weather stations during the period 1961-2015. This period was divided into two sub-periods (1961-1990 and 1991-2015) to calculate the suitability of climate for potato critical growth period (from flowering to harvesting) and to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of potato climate suitability. The results showed that average climate suitability index of potato growth from flowering to harvesting in 1961-2015 was 0.62, confirming that climatic conditions were suitable for growing potato in Inner Mongolia. The suitability index of sunshine hours was highest and that of precipitation lowest. This further illuminated that light and heat conditions in the region were better than water condition, and water was the main limiting factor of potato cultivation in Inner Mongolia. For the spatial distribution, the trend in temperature suitability tracked a low-high-medium curve from west to east. The suitability of precipitation was better in the southeast than in the northwest. Also the suitability of sunshine hours was high in the west and low in the east. For the comprehensive suitability of climate based on the above three factors, high-value areas were distributed in the east of Yin Mountain and the south of Daxing'anling Mountain regions, while the low-value areas were in the west of Inner Mongolia. Then for the time scale, the paper analyzed the annual changes in climatic suitability. Most of the area showed an uptrend in climate suitability for 1961-1990, except the north-east and north-west of Inner Mongolia. However, there was a significant decline in climate suitability in most of Inner Mongolia during 1991-2015. For the investigated 55 years (1961-2015), there were different climatic trends/indexes in the growth period form flowering to harvesting of potato in different regions, driven by climate change in Inner Mongolia. The comprehensive climatic suitability increased little in the southeast of Yin Mountain, northwest of Yin Mountain, the Hetao Irrigation District and the Alxa League, while other regions showed a decreasing trend. In general, there was a decreasing trend in climate suitability for potato from flowering to harvesting in Inner Mongolia, which occurred at an average rate of 0.004 0·(10a)-1. The suitability of temperature and precipitation declined, while sunshine hour suitability basically flattened, which was not good for potato growth in the region. Therefore, there was the need to strengthen moisture and temperature managements during the period from flowering to harvesting of potato. The results of the study reflected the overall condition for the cultivation of potato in Inner Mongolia and also provided the necessary references for the efficient utilization of climatic factors.
Keyword:  Climate change  Inner Mongolia  Potato  Flowering to harvesting  Climatic suitability  Temperature suitability  Sunshine hour suitability  Precipitation suitability
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