高晨曦, 卢秋萍, 欧年青, 胡清萍, 林雪, 鲍玲鑫. “双碳”目标下河南省农业碳排放影响因素及预测研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2022, 30(11): 1842−1851. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220267
引用本文: 高晨曦, 卢秋萍, 欧年青, 胡清萍, 林雪, 鲍玲鑫. “双碳”目标下河南省农业碳排放影响因素及预测研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2022, 30(11): 1842−1851. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220267
GAO C X, LU Q P, OU N Q, HU Q P, LIN X, BAO L X. Research on influencing factors and prediction of agricultural carbon emission in Henan Province under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality goal[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2022, 30(11): 1842−1851. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220267
Citation: GAO C X, LU Q P, OU N Q, HU Q P, LIN X, BAO L X. Research on influencing factors and prediction of agricultural carbon emission in Henan Province under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality goal[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2022, 30(11): 1842−1851. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220267

“双碳”目标下河南省农业碳排放影响因素及预测研究

Research on influencing factors and prediction of agricultural carbon emission in Henan Province under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality goal

  • 摘要: 农业生产是碳排放的主要来源之一, 农业碳减排是中国实现“双碳”目标的重点方面。本文采用排放因子法测算河南省农业碳排放量; 对STIRPAT模型进行扩展, 定性与定量分析了农业碳排放的各种影响因素; 建立RBF核ε-SVR农业碳排放预测模型, 预测不同情景下河南省农业碳排放量及趋势。结果表明: 2001—2020年河南省农业CO2排放量总体呈“上升-下降”的趋势, 年均增长率为−1.18%, 2005年达峰值10 256.69万t; 乡村人口、农作物播种面积、大型畜牧数、人均农业GDP、农村人均可支配收入、农业机械化水平、城镇化率每发生1%的变动, 将分别引起河南省农业CO2排放量0.162%、0.175%、0.130%、−0.018%、−0.029%、0.120%、−0.071%的变动; 在基准情景和低碳情景Ⅰ、Ⅱ下, 2021—2025年河南省农业CO2排放量呈持续下降的变化趋势, 到2025年预测值分别为6483.80万t、6369.19万t和6338.32万t。研究表明: 河南省农业已实现碳达峰; 抑制农业碳排放的重点是农作物的土地利用及大型畜牧的粪便管理, 促进农业碳减排的重点是稳妥推进城镇化及农村经济发展; 低碳情景具有更大的碳减排潜力, 有助于加速全省“双碳”目标的实现。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural production is one of the main sources of carbon emissions, and agricultural carbon emission reduction is a key aspect for China to achieve Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality goal. This study used the emission coefficient method to estimate agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province from 2001 to 2020. The STIRPAT model was extended to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the various factors influencing agricultural carbon emissions. Accounting for the defects of traditional prediction models, such as over-fitting, fuzzy nonlinear relationships, and insufficient generalization ability, an agricultural carbon emission prediction model based on the RBF (radial basis function) kernel ε-SVR (support vector regression) was established to predict agricultural carbon emissions and trends in Henan Province from 2021 to 2025 under different scenarios. Agricultural CO2 emissions in Henan Province showed an overall “increasing-decreasing” trend from 2001 to 2020, with an annual growth rate of −1.18%, and reached peaks of 1.0257×108 t in 2005. The main emission sources of agricultural CO2 in Henan Province had changed from enteric fermentation and manure management in animal husbandry to land utilization and rice cultivation in planting industry. Every 1% increase in rural population, crop sown area, number of large livestock, agricultural GDP per capita, per capita rural disposable income, agricultural mechanization level, and urbanization rate caused changes in agricultural CO2 emissions of 0.162%, 0.175%, 0.130%, −0.018%, −0.029%, 0.120%, and −0.071% in Henan Province, respectively. Among the seven factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province, the sown area of crops had the largest promoting effect, followed by the rural population and the number of large livestock, and the agricultural mechanization level had the smallest promoting effect. The urbanization rate had the strongest inhibitory effect, followed by the rural per capita disposable income, and per capita agricultural GDP had the least inhibitory effect. Under the baseline scenario, agricultural CO2 emissions in Henan Province will continue to decline from 2021 to 2025, and the predicted value in 2025 will be 6.4838×107 t, a decrease of 10.89% compared with 7.276×107 t in 2020. The low carbon scenario I presents a faster decline rate than the baseline scenario, with a predicted value of 6.3692 ×107 t in 2025, a decrease of 12.47% compared with 2020. Under low carbon scenario Ⅱ, the decrease rate of agricultural CO2 emissions in Henan Province is the highest, and the predicted value in 2025 is 6.3383×107 t, which is 12.89% less than that in 2020. This study showed that agricultural carbon peaking had been achieved in Henan Province. The further governance of agricultural carbon emissions should focuse on the land utilization of crops and manure management of large livestock, and the focus of promoting agricultural carbon emission reduction should be to steadily promote urbanization and rural economic development. Compared with the baseline scenario, the low-carbon scenario has greater carbon emission reduction potential and can realize the efficient development of the rural economy, urbanization process, and low-carbon agriculture, which will help accelerate the realization of the province’s Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality goal.

     

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