于水, 张晓龙, 王妍, 沈彦军. 气候变化对中国东北三省主要粮食作物影响研究综述[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(0): 1−16. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230692
引用本文: 于水, 张晓龙, 王妍, 沈彦军. 气候变化对中国东北三省主要粮食作物影响研究综述[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(0): 1−16. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230692
YU S, ZHANG X L, WANG Y, SHEN Y J. Research review on the impacts of climate change on the staple grain crops in the Three Northeastern Provinces of China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(0): 1−16. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230692
Citation: YU S, ZHANG X L, WANG Y, SHEN Y J. Research review on the impacts of climate change on the staple grain crops in the Three Northeastern Provinces of China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(0): 1−16. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230692

气候变化对中国东北三省主要粮食作物影响研究综述

Research review on the impacts of climate change on the staple grain crops in the Three Northeastern Provinces of China

  • 摘要: 全球气候变化已经成为事实, 并且导致了全球粮食危机和饥饿风险增加。东北三省作为我国主要的粮食生产基地, 对气候变化十分敏感。本文梳理了当前及未来气候变化对东北三省玉米、水稻和大豆生产影响的相关研究, 概括了当前主要研究方法、东北三省主要作物对气候变化的响应以及应对措施, 并进一步评述了当前主要研究方法和研究领域的不足: 1)研究气候变化和极端气候事件对作物生长发育和产量影响的主要方法包括田间试验法、统计分析法以及作物模型法, 其中田间试验法结果最直观, 统计分析法可操作强、应用范围最广, 作物模型法机理性强。2)东北三省气候变化明显, 并且随着气候变化, 干旱逐渐取代低温冷害成为当地主要灾害。3)气候变化对东北三省作物生产整体是有利的。气候变暖改善了东北三省热量资源, 不仅使作物种植区域逐渐北移, 作物品种也逐渐从早熟向中晚熟转变。4)随着气候变暖不断加剧, 未来东北地区作物应选择耐高温、抗旱、抗寒等抗逆性强的品种; 加强农田水利设施建设, 增强应对干旱洪涝灾害的能力; 采用新的农业管理措施, 保护土壤健康以及粮食生产安全。5)未来需要加强对CO2补偿效应以及病虫害等的研究, 加强对作物模型的研究完善, 以更好地应对气候变化对粮食安全的不利影响。

     

    Abstract: The reality of global climate change has already led to the global food crisis and increased risk of starvation. As a major grain production region, three provinces in Northeast China are particularly vulnerable to climate change. This article categorized the effects of climate change and extreme climate events on the production of maize, rice and soybean in three provinces of Northeast China, summarized the main research methods, climate change and their effects on food crops, the countermeasures to climate change, and further reviewed the challenges of the major research methodology and fields (1) Statistical analysis, crop modeling, and field experiments are the main techniques for examining how climate change and extreme climate events affect the crop growth and yield. While crop modeling and field experiments offer the most powerful mechanistic insights, statistical analysis is the most extensively used practical approach. (2) Climate change is evident in the three northeastern provinces, and drought has steadily replaced the low-temperature cold damage as the main agricultural disaster over time. (3) Climate change has been favorable to crop yield in the Northeast provinces. Global warming improves heat resources in Northeast China. Crop-growing areas are gradually moving northward, and varieties are shifting from early to medium-late maturity. (4) As global warming continues to intensify, it’s crucial to opt for crop varieties in the future that demonstrate robust resilience to high temperatures, drought, cold, and other environmental challenges. Additionally, agricultural irrigation systems should be enhanced resilience against drought and flood disasters. The safeguard the health of soil and ensure food, new agricultural management techniques should also be taken into account. (5) There is a need to intensify research on the compensatory of CO2 and on pests and diseases in the future, enhance the study and improvement of crop models, to better address the adverse impacts of climate change on food security.

     

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