Predicting spatiotemporal changes in land use and habitat quality based on CA-Markov: A case study in central Ningxia, China

The ecological impacts of land use have become a contested topic in ecological environmental research. An understanding of the land-use structure characteristics in arid and semi-arid areas allows for habitat quality assessment and prediction and provides a decision-making guide for regional ecological planning and restoration. Remote sensing apparatus equipped with an operational land imager and enhanced thematic mapper plus sensors, meteorological data, and socio-economic data were used to explore the temporal and spatial changes of land use and habitat quality in the arid area of central Ningxia, China, from 2000 to 2030. Land-use transfer flow, the InVEST model, and the CA-Markov model were used to simulate the habitat characteristics and laws and generate predictions. The land-use transfer flow, which explored the dynamic changes of the land system structure, showed significant results and explained the land-use transfer laws and spatial distribution characteristics. The land system structure changes were consistent with the ecological construction plan and had a concentrated distribution on both sides of the Yellow River basin. The land system's comprehensive dynamics gradually decreased and stabilized. The entropy value showed an annual downward trend, indicating that over time, with less human disturbances, the land can self-adjust and self-repair, creating a stable state. From 2000 to 2015, the ecological environment quality showed "U" shape characteristics, indicating an excellent habitat quality grade. From 2015 to 2030, the land system structure will undergo significant changes; the excellent, good, and poor habitat quality areas will gradually expand, and the ecosystem will stabilize and improve. The multi-model integration application can thus provide support for regional land planning and ecological restoration.