Spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of grain security in Shaanxi Province

Using the cultivated land-pressure index model, the level of grain security in the counties of Shaanxi Province for the period 1949~2006 was quantitatively evaluated. Also, the rate of development and change of regional food security analyzed along with the dynamics of cultivated land-pressure. Based on the data, the future trend of food security in Shaanxi Province was forecasted by using the gray model. In 1949~2006, cultivated land-pressure index for Shaanxi Province decreases from 1.591 in 1949 to 1.298 in 2006. The assessment is based on per capita share of grain consumption level of 400 kg, which means that grain security tend is alleviate. There exists an obvious difference in cultivated land-pressure index among the counties, which is low for most regions of Guanzhong Plain, and high for Yulin and Yan’an in the Loess Plateau region of northern Shaanxi and Shangluo (Qinling-Bashan Mountain region in southern Shaanxi). Differences in cultivated land-pressure index rates among the counties are also significant. Currently, there still exist problems of grain security in Shaanxi Province. In the future, regional grain security should be given high priority.