赣州市柑橘低温冻害综合风险评估与区划

Comprehensive risk assessment and zoning of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus in Ganzhou City

  • 摘要: 为因地制宜开展柑橘低温冻害风险管理, 优化种植布局, 基于气象灾害风险形成机制, 利用赣南气象数据、柑橘种植区分布数据、统计数据和农业生产数据, 构建危险性、暴露度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力指数, 以及综合风险指数模型, 对赣州市柑橘越冬期低温冻害进行综合风险评估与区划。结果表明: 1)柑橘低温冻害危险性表现为中部低和由中部向东北、西南升高的特性, 高危险性区主要集中在武夷山脉和九连山脉附近地区, 包括赣州市东部的宁都、石城、瑞金、会昌东部和南部的全南东南部。2)赣州市柑橘果园主要集中分布于东北部、东南部及南部地区。高脆弱性区集中在赣州市西部的崇义、中偏南部的安远和信丰以及南部的全南。低防灾减灾能力区主要位于赣州市东北部的宁都和石城、西部的上犹、中偏南部的安远和中部的章贡。3)柑橘低温冻害综合风险表现为东北部和东南部高、中部和中偏南部低的特性。柑橘低温冻害综合风险高风险区主要位于宁都大部、石城、瑞金、安远和全南。综合风险区划结果具有较好的可靠性和实用性, 对柑橘种植规划具有一定指导意义。

     

    Abstract: In this study, we evaluated the comprehensive risk of low-temperature freezing damage during the wintering period, with the aim of providing a scientific basis for carrying out meteorological disaster risk management and optimizing planting layout for citrus according to local conditions. On the basis of the mechanisms of meteorological disaster risk formation, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, disaster prevention, and mitigation capacity indices were determined using meteorological data, distribution data for citrus planting areas in southern Jiangxi, citrus statistical data, and agricultural production data to conduct comprehensive risk assessment and zoning of low-temperature freezing damage during the wintering period for citrus cultivated in Ganzhou City. The results indicated that the hazard of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus was characterized by a pattern of low risk in the central region, with risk increasing toward the northeast and southwest. High-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the vicinities of the Wuyi and Jiulian Mountains, including Ningdu, Shicheng, Ruijin, eastern Huichang in eastern Ganzhou and southeastern Quannan in southern Ganzhou. Citrus orchards in Ganzhou are mainly concentrated in the northeastern, southeastern, and southern areas, with the largest citrus planting area, as well as its proportion in different counties (districts), being located in Xunwu and Anyuan in southeastern Ganzhou. High vulnerability areas were concentrated in Chongyi in western Ganzhou, Anyuan and Xinfeng in central southern Ganzhou, and Quannan in southern Ganzhou, whereas low disaster prevention and mitigation capacity areas were mainly located in Ningdu and Shicheng in northeastern Ganzhou, Shangyou in western Ganzhou, Anyuan in central southern Ganzhou, and Zhanggong in central Ganzhou. Overall, the comprehensive risk of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus was characterized by a high risk in the northeastern and southeastern areas, and low risk in the central and central southern areas, whereas areas with a low comprehensive risk of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus were primarily distributed in Longnan, western Dingnan, Xinfeng, Huichang, western Yudu, most of Ganxian, Nankang, Zhanggong, and Dayu. Areas with a high comprehensive risk were mainly located in most of Ningdu, Shicheng, Ruijin, Anyuan, and Quannan. The comprehensive risk zoning results obtained in this study are considered to have good reliability and practicality, and have a certain directive significance with respect to the design of citrus planting schemes.

     

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