Abstract:
In this study, we evaluated the comprehensive risk of low-temperature freezing damage during the wintering period, with the aim of providing a scientific basis for carrying out meteorological disaster risk management and optimizing planting layout for citrus according to local conditions. On the basis of the mechanisms of meteorological disaster risk formation, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, disaster prevention, and mitigation capacity indices were determined using meteorological data, distribution data for citrus planting areas in southern Jiangxi, citrus statistical data, and agricultural production data to conduct comprehensive risk assessment and zoning of low-temperature freezing damage during the wintering period for citrus cultivated in Ganzhou City. The results indicated that the hazard of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus was characterized by a pattern of low risk in the central region, with risk increasing toward the northeast and southwest. High-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the vicinities of the Wuyi and Jiulian Mountains, including Ningdu, Shicheng, Ruijin, eastern Huichang in eastern Ganzhou and southeastern Quannan in southern Ganzhou. Citrus orchards in Ganzhou are mainly concentrated in the northeastern, southeastern, and southern areas, with the largest citrus planting area, as well as its proportion in different counties (districts), being located in Xunwu and Anyuan in southeastern Ganzhou. High vulnerability areas were concentrated in Chongyi in western Ganzhou, Anyuan and Xinfeng in central southern Ganzhou, and Quannan in southern Ganzhou, whereas low disaster prevention and mitigation capacity areas were mainly located in Ningdu and Shicheng in northeastern Ganzhou, Shangyou in western Ganzhou, Anyuan in central southern Ganzhou, and Zhanggong in central Ganzhou. Overall, the comprehensive risk of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus was characterized by a high risk in the northeastern and southeastern areas, and low risk in the central and central southern areas, whereas areas with a low comprehensive risk of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus were primarily distributed in Longnan, western Dingnan, Xinfeng, Huichang, western Yudu, most of Ganxian, Nankang, Zhanggong, and Dayu. Areas with a high comprehensive risk were mainly located in most of Ningdu, Shicheng, Ruijin, Anyuan, and Quannan. The comprehensive risk zoning results obtained in this study are considered to have good reliability and practicality, and have a certain directive significance with respect to the design of citrus planting schemes.