基于气象数据的河北低平原盐碱区作物水分供需评估

Assessment of crop water supply and demand in saline-alkali areas of the Hebei low plains based on meteorological data

  • 摘要: 为明确河北低平原盐碱区作物水分供需动态特征与规律性干旱时段, 本研究以黄骅市(滨海盐碱类型区)和南皮县(内陆盐碱类型区)为典型县域, 基于1980—2024年逐日气象数据, 采用FAO Penman-Monteith模型和水分盈亏指数方法, 分析了冬小麦和夏玉米生育期内潜在蒸散量、有效降水量和需水量的时序变化特征, 比较了不同生育阶段水分供需的差异, 并借助逐日水分盈亏指数识别关键干旱时段。结果表明, 近45年来, 研究区潜在蒸散量呈上升趋势, 年增长幅度介于1.79~2.30 mm/a, 而冬小麦生育期有效降水量则以0.66 mm/a (黄骅市)和0.71 mm/a (南皮县)的速率下降, 水分供需失衡加剧。冬小麦全生育期存在持续性水分亏缺, 抽穗期累积亏缺量达117.01~118.36 mm, 日均水分亏缺强度达5.87~5.92 mm/d, 且全生育期约1/3时间处于重度及以上干旱等级。夏玉米水分状况总体较好, 仅在灌浆期出现短期水分不足。基于日尺度水分盈亏指数识别出两个干旱高频时段: 3月上中旬(返青期内3月6—15日左右)与4月上中旬(拔节期内4月2—6日与4月13—17日), 并据此提出水分管理建议, 南皮县可探索微咸水与雨水的分期互补利用模式, 黄骅市则建议重点发展以雨水蓄集与高效利用为主导的灌溉方式。本研究从日尺度揭示了作物水分胁迫的精细过程, 所明确的关键干旱窗口与灌溉建议, 为该区域实现雨水资源化与微咸水安全利用的精准水分调控提供时空节点依据和决策思路。

     

    Abstract: To clarify the dynamic characteristics of crop water supply and demand and identify regular drought periods in the saline-alkali areas of Hebei low plains, taking Huanghua City (coastal saline-alkali region) and Nanpi County (inland saline-alkali region) as representative counties, this study analyzed the temporal variations in potential evapotranspiration, effective precipitation, and water demand during the growth periods of winter wheat and summer maize. This analysis was conducted using daily meteorological data from 1980 to 2024, the FAO Penman-Monteith model, and the water balance index method. It compared water supply and demand differences across growth stages and identified critical drought periods using daily water balance indices. Results indicated that over the past 45 years, potential evapotranspiration in the study area had shown an upward trend, with annual growth rates ranging from 1.79 to 2.30 mm/a. Meanwhile, effective precipitation during the winter wheat growing season had decreased at rates of 0.66 mm/a (Huanghua City) and 0.71 mm/a (Nanpi County), exacerbating the imbalance between water supply and demand. Winter wheat experienced persistent water deficits throughout its entire growth period. The cumulative deficit during the heading stage reached 117.01–118.36 mm, with an average daily deficit intensity of 5.87−5.92 mm/d. Approximately one-third of the entire growth period was classified as severe drought or higher. Summer maize generally maintained favorable water conditions, experiencing only short-term water shortages during the grain filling stage. Two high-frequency drought periods were identified using daily-scale water balance indices: early to mid-March (around March 6 to 15 during the regreening stage) and early to mid-April (April 2 to 6 and April 13 to 17 during the jointing stage). Based on these findings, water management recommendations were proposed: Nanpi County could explore the phased complementary use of brackish water and rainwater, while Huanghua City is advised to prioritize irrigation methods centered on rainwater harvesting and efficient utilization. This study reveals the detailed processes of crop water stress at the daily scale. The identified critical drought windows and irrigation recommendations provide spatiotemporal reference points and decision-making insights for achieving precise water regulation through rainwater resource utilization and safe use of slightly saline water in this region.

     

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