中国作物生产环境影响时空过程

Spatiotemporal dynamics of environmental impacts from crop production in China

  • 摘要: 我国正面临着粮食安全与环境可持续发展之间的权衡与协调, 从多个方面评估作物生产的可持续性变化并反馈政策实施效果至关重要。本文聚焦农业灌溉用水、氮和磷养分盈余以及温室气体排放4项作物生产中的关键环境指标, 综合采用遥感监测、统计调查和模型模拟等多源数据, 利用质量平衡模型、模型模拟和排放清单法等方法, 评估了2010—2020年我国省级尺度作物生产环境影响的时空过程。结果表明, 2010—2020年, 随着农作物产量(以J计)的增加(+23%), 灌溉用水量(+15%)也在增加, 而氮盈余(−14%)、磷盈余(−15%)以及温室气体排放(−8%)呈下降趋势。多数地区的环境指标显著改善, 呈现出积极的可持续发展态势, 但新疆、甘肃、宁夏和陕西大部分环境指标总量仍呈增长趋势。同时, 作物生产的环境效应强度(单位能量产量的环境指标值)及其综合环境影响(−14%)均有所下降。区域差异分析表明, 东北、黄淮海以及西南部分地区综合环境影响显著减轻, 而新疆、江西、福建、广东及海南则持续面临较高综合环境压力。尽管作物生产综合环境影响整体已呈缓解趋势, 但综合环境影响较大的区域差异凸显了局部环境压力的复杂性。本研究可为农业可持续发展区域差别化政策的制定提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: China is confronting trade-offs between food security and environmental sustainability. It is crucial to assess changes in the sustainability of crop production from multiple perspectives and evaluate the effectiveness of policy implementation. This study, based on the provincial-level administrative region scale, focuses on four key environmental indicators — water consumption for irrigation, nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions — of crop production systems in China. We integrated data from various sources, including remote sensing, statistical surveys, and model simulations. Using methods such as mass balance modeling, simulations, and emission inventories, we evaluated the spatiotemporal dynamics of environmental impacts of crop production at the provincial level in China from 2010 to 2020. This approach enables the quantification of water resource stress, non-point source pollution, and climate change impacts associated with crop production. The results indicated that from 2010 to 2020, crop production in joules increased by 23%, accompanied by a 15% rise in water consumption for irrigation. Meanwhile, nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses decreased by 14% and 15%, respectively, and GHG emissions declined by 8%. Environmental indicators in most regions demonstrated significant improvement, reflecting a positive trend toward sustainable development. However, the total amount of most environmental indicators in Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi still exhibited an increasing trend. Notably, the intensity of these environmental indicators per GJ yield decreased, and the comprehensive environmental impact declined by 14%. Regional analysis revealed that the integrated environmental impact significantly decreased in Northeast China, the Huang-Huai-Hai Region, and parts of Southwest China. In contrast, Xinjiang, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan consistently faced increasing environmental pressure. Although the overall environmental impact of crop production showed a mitigation trend, the notable regional differences in environmental impact highlighted the complexity of localized environmental pressure. According to the research conclusions, we propose several policy recommendations that are conducive to balancing food security and environmental sustainability. These include identifying key provincial-level administrative regions and environmental indicators for prioritizing environmental governance and avoiding land cultivation in ecologically fragile hotspots with high environmental impact intensity. This study can provide references for identifying priority actions to mitigate the environmental impacts of crop production and for developing regionally differentiated policies aimed at sustainable agricultural development. Furthermore, it can assist various regions in formulating specific policies to minimize environmental impacts while maintaining crop production.

     

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