Abstract:
China is confronting trade-offs between food security and environmental sustainability. It is crucial to assess changes in the sustainability of crop production from multiple perspectives and evaluate the effectiveness of policy implementation. This study, based on the provincial-level administrative region scale, focuses on four key environmental indicators — water consumption for irrigation, nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions — of crop production systems in China. We integrated data from various sources, including remote sensing, statistical surveys, and model simulations. Using methods such as mass balance modeling, simulations, and emission inventories, we evaluated the spatiotemporal dynamics of environmental impacts of crop production at the provincial level in China from 2010 to 2020. This approach enables the quantification of water resource stress, non-point source pollution, and climate change impacts associated with crop production. The results indicated that from 2010 to 2020, crop production in joules increased by 23%, accompanied by a 15% rise in water consumption for irrigation. Meanwhile, nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses decreased by 14% and 15%, respectively, and GHG emissions declined by 8%. Environmental indicators in most regions demonstrated significant improvement, reflecting a positive trend toward sustainable development. However, the total amount of most environmental indicators in Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi still exhibited an increasing trend. Notably, the intensity of these environmental indicators per GJ yield decreased, and the comprehensive environmental impact declined by 14%. Regional analysis revealed that the integrated environmental impact significantly decreased in Northeast China, the Huang-Huai-Hai Region, and parts of Southwest China. In contrast, Xinjiang, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan consistently faced increasing environmental pressure. Although the overall environmental impact of crop production showed a mitigation trend, the notable regional differences in environmental impact highlighted the complexity of localized environmental pressure. According to the research conclusions, we propose several policy recommendations that are conducive to balancing food security and environmental sustainability. These include identifying key provincial-level administrative regions and environmental indicators for prioritizing environmental governance and avoiding land cultivation in ecologically fragile hotspots with high environmental impact intensity. This study can provide references for identifying priority actions to mitigate the environmental impacts of crop production and for developing regionally differentiated policies aimed at sustainable agricultural development. Furthermore, it can assist various regions in formulating specific policies to minimize environmental impacts while maintaining crop production.