2013—2022年云南省农业碳排放的时空变化

Temporal and spatial dynamics of agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2022

  • 摘要: 农业活动是温室气体排放的重要来源之一, 对全球气候变化产生了显著影响。然而, 省域尺度的农业碳排放时空变化规律尚未完全明晰。本文旨在系统研究2013—2022年云南省农业碳排放的时空变化特征、驱动因素及其空间溢出效应, 为制定低碳农业政策和实现农业可持续发展提供科学依据。本研究采用灰色关联分析、地理探测器、空间自相关检验、标准差椭圆分析和空间计量模型等方法, 结合2013—2022年统计资料数据, 对云南省农业碳排放总量、强度及其时空分布进行了定量分析。研究结果表明: 1)云南省农业碳排放总量呈“先增后减”的趋势, 从2013年的1 241.34万t增加到2016年的1 310.95万t, 随后逐年下降至2022年的1 050.20万t, 累计降幅达19.9%。碳排放强度则持续下降, 从2013年的0.406 t∙(104¥)−1降至2022年的0.159 t∙(104¥)−1, 降幅60.8%, 年均下降6.8%。2)云南省农业碳排放呈现“东部高、西北低”的格局, 曲靖市、昆明市和红河州是主要的高排放区域, 而怒江州等西北部地区碳排放量较低; 碳排放强度则表现为“中部低、四周高”的特征, 丽江市和红河州的碳排放强度较高。3)氮肥、农膜和复合肥是农业碳排放的主要来源, 农业产值(q=0.88)、乡村人口(q=0.72)和GDP (q=0.69)是驱动碳排放空间异质性的关键因素。4) 云南省农业碳排放空间溢出效应显著, 农业产值和乡村人口每增加1%, 相邻地区的碳排放分别增加0.009%和0.013%; 而本地GDP增长对邻近地区的碳排放具有抑制作用, 每增长1%可使相邻地区碳排放减少0.001%。本研究通过空间计量模型和地理探测器等方法, 揭示了云南省农业碳排放的时空分布规律, 并将空间溢出效应纳入省域尺度的碳排放研究框架。研究结果不仅进一步丰富了农业碳排放空间异质性及其成因的研究, 也为云南省制定低碳农业政策提供科学依据, 为实现农业的绿色转型和可持续发展提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural activities are one of the important sources of greenhouse gas emissions and have a significant impact on global climate change. However, the spatiotemporal patterns of agricultural carbon emissions at the provincial level are not yet fully understood, especially in regions with diverse agricultural production modes, such as Yunnan Province in China. This article aims to systematically study the spatiotemporal characteristics, driving factors, and spatial spillover effects of agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2022, providing scientific basis for formulating low-carbon agricultural policies and achieving sustainable agricultural development. This study used methods such as grey relational analysis, geographic detector, spatial autocorrelation test, standard deviation ellipse analysis, and spatial econometric model, combined with data from Yunnan Statistical Yearbook and China Rural Statistical Yearbook from 2013 to 2022, to quantitatively analyze the total amount, intensity, and spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province. The research results indicate that: (1) The total carbon emissions from agriculture show a trend of "first increasing and then decreasing", increasing from 12.4134 million tons in 2013 to 13.1095 million tons in 2016, and then decreasing year by year to 10.502 million tons in 2022, with a cumulative decrease of 19.9%. The carbon emission intensity continues to decline, from 0.406 tons per 10000 yuan in 2013 to 0.159 tons per 10000 yuan in 2022, a decrease of 60.8%, with an average annual decrease of 6.8%. (2) In terms of spatial distribution, agricultural carbon emissions show a pattern of "high in the east and low in the northwest", with Qujing, Kunming, and Honghe being the main high emission areas, while Nujiang and other northwestern regions have lower carbon emissions. The carbon emission intensity is characterized by "low in the middle and high in the surrounding areas", with Lijiang City and Honghe having higher carbon emission intensity. (3) Nitrogen fertilizer, agricultural film, and compound fertilizer are the main sources of agricultural carbon emissions, and agricultural output value (q=0.88), rural population (q=0.72), and GDP (q=0.69) are key factors driving spatial heterogeneity of carbon emissions. (4) The spatial spillover effect is significant. For every 1% increase in agricultural output value and rural population, the carbon emissions of adjacent areas increase by 0.009% and 0.013%, respectively; The growth of local GDP has a suppressive effect on carbon emissions in neighboring regions, with every 1% increase leading to a 0.001% reduction in carbon emissions in neighboring areas. This study uses spatial econometric models and geographic detectors to reveal the spatiotemporal differentiation patterns and cross regional linkage mechanisms of agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province, and incorporates spatial spillover effects into the provincial scale carbon emission research framework. The research results provide a scientific basis for Yunnan Province to formulate differentiated low-carbon agricultural policies, especially for high emission areas such as Qujing, Kunming, and Honghe. It is recommended to promote precision fertilization, reduce the use of agricultural films, and adopt clean energy technologies; For low emission areas such as Nujiang, the low emission mode should continue to be maintained to reduce dependence on fertilizers and pesticides.

     

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