子牙河平原水氮粮耦合关系模拟

Simulation of coupling relationship between water, nitrogen and grain in the Ziya River Plain

  • 摘要: 华北平原是我国重要的两熟制粮食高产区, 同时面临巨大的水资源压力和生态环境压力。本研究以华北平原典型超采区和高产区——子牙河平原为例, 基于SWAT模型开展了区域"水-氮-粮"耦合模拟, 利用"水-氮-粮"要素的实测资料(蒸散发、叶面积指数、产量等)对模型参数进行了率定和验证, 并对过去近40年(1980~2022年)的区域农田水氮循环和粮食产量进行了模拟研究。研究结果表明:1)模型能较好地模拟区域"水-氮-粮"要素, 与实测值相比, 模型模拟蒸散发和叶面积指数的决定系数 (R2) 均大于0.69、纳什效率系数 (NSE) 均大于0.68; 冬小麦和夏玉米产量的模拟结果平均相对误差 (MRE) 和归一化均方根误差 (NRMSE)均小于0.19; 2)在1980~2022年间, 该区域共生产小麦和玉米5.3 亿吨, 消耗地下水953.4 亿m3, 产生氮淋失493.7 万吨, 氮淋失年均强度为109.6 kg N∙ ha-1。研究结果可为区域农业生产和地下水量质管理决策提供科学依据, 进而服务于区域粮食安全、水安全和生态环境安全保障战略, 对实现区域粮食生产-水资源保护-生态环境治理协同发展具有参考价值。

     

    Abstract: The North China Plain is an important high-yield area of ​​double-cropping grain in my country, and it is also facing huge water resource pressure and ecological environment pressure. This study takes the Ziyahe Plain, a typical over-exploited area and high-yield area in the North China Plain, as an example, and conducts regional "water-nitrogen-grain" coupling simulation based on the SWAT model. The model is calibrated and verified using the measured values ​​of the "water-nitrogen-grain" elements, and the regional farmland water and nitrogen cycle and grain yield in the past 40 years are simulated. The results show that: 1) The model can well simulate the regional "water-nitrogen-grain" elements. Compared with the measured values, the determination coefficient (R2) of the model-simulated evapotranspiration and leaf area index is greater than 0.69, and the Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE) is greater than 0.68; the mean relative error (MRE) and normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) of the simulation results of winter wheat and summer corn yields are less than 0.19. In the past 40 years (1980-2022), the region has produced 533.4 million tons of grain, consumed 95.3 billion m3 of groundwater, and generated 4.9 million tons of nitrogen leaching, with an average nitrogen leaching intensity of 109.6 kg N∙ ha-1. The research results can provide a scientific basis for regional agricultural production and groundwater quantity and quality management decisions, thus serving the regional food security, water security and ecological environment security strategies.

     

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