乡村振兴背景下广东省农业农村碳减排路径研究

Pathways of carbon reduction for agriculture and rural areas in Guangdong Province: A rural revitalization perspective

  • 摘要: “双碳”目标的提出为乡村振兴战略注入了绿色新动力, 推动农业农村领域碳中和的实现是落实乡村振兴战略的重要措施。为了探索广东农村推进乡村振兴与碳中和目标的融合路径, 本文基于排放因子法核算了2015—2022年广东农业农村温室气体排放量, 并对到2023—2035年广东农业农村温室气体排放趋势进行预测。结果显示, 2022年广东农业农村温室气体排放量约10 228万t(CO2-eq), 其中非CO2温室气体占比超过50%。通过优化能源结构、提升能源效率、强化非CO2温室气体减排等措施, 广东2035年农业农村温室气体排放有望降低约80% (较2022年), 通过推动农业生物质资源的高值化利用, 有望提升农村资源附加值, 并推动农村产业升级和经济发展。通过建立乡村振兴与碳中和目标有机融合的顶层设计机制, 提高农村电气化水平, 提升农村能源利用效率, 推动农村光伏多场景发展, 推进农林生物质高值化利用, 控制农业CH4和N2O排放, 可在实现农村碳中和的同时助力乡村振兴。

     

    Abstract: The proposal of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals has injected new green momentum into the rural revitalization strategy. Promoting the achievement of carbon neutrality in agriculture and rural areas is not only an essential step for implementing this strategy but also a core component of green and high-quality development. To explore integrated pathways for achieving both rural revitalization and carbon neutrality in Guangdong and to provide scientific evidence and policy recommendations, this paper calculated the greenhouse gas emissions in rural areas of Guangdong from 2015 to 2022 based on the emission factor method and forecasted the emission trend from 2023 to 2035. The results indicated that the greenhouse gas emissions in rural areas of Guangdong reached approximately 102.28 million t(CO2-eq) in 2022. Notably, non-CO2 greenhouse gases, primarily CH4 and N2O from agricultural activities, accounted for over 50% of the total emissions, highlighting the critical importance of addressing these sources. The study further modeled the potential emission reductions achievable through the implementation of targeted mitigation measures. The findings demonstrated that by optimizing the energy structure, improving energy efficiency, and strengthening non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission reductions, GHG emissions in rural Guangdong could be reduced by approximately 80% by 2035 compared with the level in 2022. Furthermore, the high-value utilization of agricultural biomass resources could enhance rural resource value and promote rural industrial upgrading and economic development. This study underscores that the synergistic achievement of rural revitalization and carbon neutrality is feasible through a well-designed top-level integration mechanism. Key implementation pathways include establishing a cohesive policy framework that aligns climate goals with rural development, accelerating rural electrification and enhancing energy efficiency, promoting the multi-scenario application of rural photovoltaic systems, advancing the high-value utilization of forestry and agricultural biomass resources, and implementing precise technologies and management practices to control CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture. This integrated approach offers a reference for coordinating climate action and rural development, with practical significance for policymakers and stakeholders in Guangdong and other regions pursuing low-carbon transitions.

     

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