农业社会化服务对省域粮食绿色全要素生产率的空间效应研究
Research on the spatial effect of agricultural social service on grain green total factor productivity in provincial areas
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摘要: 发展农业社会化服务是实现粮食生产绿色转型的重要内容, 是新形势下不断夯实粮食安全根基的必然选择。本文基于2002-2022年中国30个省份的面板数据, 采用超效率SBM-GML指数和动态空间杜宾模型, 实证检验农业社会化服务对粮食绿色全要素生产率的空间影响及其区域异质性。研究表明: 1)2003-2022年, 我国省域粮食绿色全要素生产率总体呈现上升趋势和“东部高、中西部低”的空间格局;2)我国粮食绿色全要素生产率和农业社会化服务发展水平均具有明显的空间正相关性;3)短期内, 农业社会化服务提升了本地区粮食绿色全要素生产率, 并呈现出正向空间溢出效应;4)农业社会化服务的影响效应存在空间异质性特征, 其对中东部地区的作用显著, 但在西部地区影响不显著;5)农业社会化服务的促进作用具有不稳定性。长期来看, 东部地区的农业社会化服务降低了粮食绿色全要素生产率且表现出负向空间溢出效应。为此, 我国应稳步推动农业社会化服务高质量发展, 因地制宜健全农业社会化服务体系, 统筹考虑农业社会化服务长期发展问题, 进而有效促进粮食生态可持续发展。Abstract: The development of agricultural social service is an important part of realizing the green transformation of grain production, and it is an inevitable choice to strengthen the foundation of grain security under the new situation. In this paper, we used the super-efficient Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model and the Global Malmquist-Luenberger total factor production index to measure the grain green total factor productivity (GTFP) of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2022, and constructed a dynamic spatial Durbin model to examine the spatial impacts of agricultural socialization services on the grain GTFP and its regional heterogeneity. The study shows that: 1) From 2003 to 2022, China's provincial grain GTFP shows a continuous upward trend and a spatial pattern of “high in the east and low in the central and western parts of the country”; 2) China's grain GTFP and the development level of agricultural socialization services both have obvious positive spatial correlation; 3) In the short term, the development of agricultural socialization services not only enhances the grain GTFP in the region, but also shows a significant positive spatial spillover effect. 4) The impact effect of agricultural socialization services is characterized by spatial heterogeneity, which is remarkable in the central and eastern areas but not in the western areas. 5) The promotional effect of agricultural socialization services is unstable. In the long run, the development of agricultural socialized services in the eastern region reduces the grain GTFP and shows a negative spatial spillover effect. For this reason, China should steadily advance the high-quality development of agricultural socialized services and implement a region-specific strategy to enhance its agricultural socialized services, and consider the long-term development of agricultural socialized services in an integrated manner, so as to effectively promote the sustainable development of grain ecology.
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