基于面板数据的农业“三化”耦合协调时空演化及驱动因素研究

Research on the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of the coupling coordination of agricultural DMG based on panel data

  • 摘要: 在中国式现代化战略框架下, 农业数字化既是驱动农业现代化进程的核心引擎与构建新型农业生产体系的关键技术支撑, 农业绿色化则作为贯穿发展的价值主线, 通过系统性重构生态友好型生产方式, 成为实现农业高质量发展、全面推进乡村振兴和加快农业强国建设的战略性支点。本研究基于2012—2022年中国30个省份的面板数据, 从农业数字化、现代化、绿色化3个维度构建指标体系, 实证检验农业“三化”耦合协调的时空演化及驱动因素。结果表明: 1) 农业数字化、现代化、绿色化系统(“三化”)存在显著协同效应, 2022年全国整体达到中度协调水平; 2)区域间, “三化”协调度呈现东部和中部大于西部和东北的空间格局, 但区域间差异逐步收敛; 3)农业现代化是核心驱动力, 通过提升生产效率和生态友好性推动“三化”协同; 4)各省耦合协调发展潜力差异明显但趋向均衡。基于此, 研究提出推进数字基建融合与构建数字农业人才体系、完善现代农业驱动的区域协同机制、以农业技术投入驱动现代化转型、实施精准施策推动发展潜力释放等建议, 以促进农业绿色可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: Under the strategic framework of Chinese path to modernization, agricultural digitalization is the key technical support for building a new agricultural production system, and agricultural greening is the value thread that runs through development. Through systematic reconstruction of eco-friendly production mode, it has become a strategic fulcrum to comprehensively promote rural revitalization and accelerate the construction of a powerful agricultural country. This study is based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022, and constructs an indicator system from three dimensions: agricultural digitization, modernization, and greening (DMG). It empirically tests the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of the coupling and coordination of agricultural DMG. The results indicate that: 1) There is a significant synergistic effect among the digitalization, modernization, and greening systems of agriculture, and the overall coordination level of the country will reach a moderate level by 2022. 2) Among different regions, the coordination degree of DMG shows a spatial pattern of East and Central parts being greater than West and Northeast parts and, the differences between regions are gradually converging. 3) Agricultural modernization is the core driving force, promoting the synergy of DMG through improving production efficiency and eco-friendly practices. 4) The potential for coupling and coordinated development varies significantly among provinces, but tends towards balance. Based on this, the study proposes suggestions to promote the integration of digital infrastructure and the construction of a digital agricultural talent system, improve the regional coordination mechanism driven by modern agriculture, drive modernization transformation with agricultural technology investment, and implement precise policies to unleash development potential, in order to promote green and sustainable development of agriculture.

     

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