基于加速遗传算法投影寻踪模型的耕地保护政策执行评估研究

Evaluation of policy implementation for cultivated land protection based on accelerating genetic algorithm projection pursuit model

  • 摘要: 耕地资源安全是维护社会稳定和国家粮食安全的重要保证。耕地保护政策在真正执行之前仅仅是含有价值观念的行动方案, 其成效唯有通过实际执行才能得以显现。分析并量化耕地保护政策执行效应, 可为完善耕地保护政策执行评估提供数据支撑和决策支持, 拓展土地政策执行评估方法的改进与创新。本文构建了耕地保护政策执行效应的评价指标体系, 并运用加速遗传算法投影寻踪模型揭示了中国30个省(自治区、直辖市, 未包括香港、澳门、台湾和西藏)耕地保护政策执行效应, 同时借助探索性空间分析、空间趋势面分析以及时空跃迁技术等模型探索其时空变化规律。研究结果表明: 1)各省份耕地保护政策执行效应呈波动上升趋势; 2)耕地保护政策执行效应在东西和南北方向上分别呈现“东高西低”和“北高南低”的空间结构特征; 3)耕地保护政策执行效应存在空间集聚性和异质性, 且表现出路径依赖和空间锁定的特征; 4)耕地保护政策执行效应制约因子为耕地生产功能、耕地社会保障功能和耕地督察等。由此可见, 耕地保护政策执行有待提升, 且受各区域耕地本底条件与环境制约, 需因地制宜制定治理策略。

     

    Abstract: The security of cultivated land resources is an important guarantee for maintaining social stability and national food security. Cultivated land protection policies are merely programs of action that contain values until they are implemented. As such, their effectiveness can only be realized through actual implementation. This study analyzes and quantifies the effect of cultivated land protection policy (CLPP) implementation, provide data support and decision support for improving the evaluation of CLPP implementation, and expand the improvement and innovation of the evaluation method for land policy implementation. This work constructs an evaluation index system for the implementation effect of cultivated land protection policies, and uses the real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm and projection pursuit classificationtechnique to reveal the level of the CLPP implementation of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) except Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Xizang.. The spatiotemporal variation law of the CLPP implementation effect is explored using an exploratory spatial data analysis model, trend surface analysis, and spatiotemporal transition technology. The results show the following: 1) The level of CLPP implementation in various provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) demonstrated an overall fluctuating upward trend. 2) Regarding the spatial pattern, the CLPP implementation effect exhibit the spatial structure of being “high in the eastern region but low in the western region” and being “high in the northern region but low in the southern region” in the east-west direction and the north-south direction, respectively. 3) Regarding spatial correlation, the CLPP implementation effect has spatial agglomeration and heterogeneity across the country. Furthermore, the effect transition of CLPP shows path dependence and spatial lock-in characteristics. 4) Regarding decomposition components, the constraints are the cultivated land production function, cultivated land social security function and cultivated land supervision level. Given these conditions, the implementation level of CLPP needs to be improved. Moreover, it is restricted by the background conditions and environment of cultivated land in each region. Therefore, governance strategies must be formulated according to local conditions.

     

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