典型黑土区旱田保护性耕作适宜性评价及驱动因素分析以沈阳市为例

Suitability evaluation and driving factors analysis of conservation tillage in typical black soil areas: A case study of Shenyang City, China

  • 摘要: 保护性耕作对提升东北黑土地旱田质量与保护生态环境意义重大, 从区域尺度构建旱田保护性耕作适宜性评价指标体系、开展科学评价并明确推广优先顺序可为保护性耕作技术落地提供重要依据。本研究以沈阳市旱田为研究对象, 运用层次分析法和德尔非法, 从气候条件、地形地貌和土壤性状3方面, 构建了包括有效积温、年均降水量、平均风速、地形部位、坡度、地块规整度、耕层质地、有效土层厚度和有机质等9个指标的适宜性评价指标体系, 利用GIS技术进行旱田保护性耕作适宜性评价及空间分析, 通过计算各指标障碍度以及开展交互作用分析, 明确旱田保护性耕作适宜性的主要驱动因素。结果表明, 沈阳市旱田保护性耕作适宜性呈西高东低、南高北低趋势。高适宜、比较适宜、一般适宜和不适宜区域分别占旱田面积的28.24%、27.36%、31.24%和13.16%。从各子系统障碍度来看, 气候条件障碍度为45%、地形地貌障碍度为33%、土壤性状障碍度为22%。其中, 年均降水量、有效积温、坡度及有效土层厚度等指标为核心驱动因子; 交互作用分析显示, 降水-地形-风速间的增强型交互是影响适宜性的关键协同组合。总体来看, 气候因素是影响区域旱田保护性耕作布局的主要因素。沈阳市西部和南部旱田保护性耕作适宜性较高, 可以优先将保护性耕作技术进行落地实践; 而东部和北部开展旱田保护性耕作适宜性较低, 可以探索更适宜的技术模式进行保护, 从而实现区域旱田质量的保育和提升。

     

    Abstract: Conservation tillage plays a vital role in enhancing the quality of dryland in Northeast China’s black soil region and protecting the ecological environment. However, limited research has been conducted on establishing suitability evaluation indicators for dryland conservation tillage at the regional scale, performing scientific assessments, and identifying priority implementation areas. Shenyang is located in the southern hinterland of Northeast China’s black soil region, where dryland farming accounts for 77% of the total cultivated land. As a key commercial grain production base in Liaoning Province, determining suitable areas and priority sequences for conservation tillage in its dryland is crucial for protecting arable land in this region, and also provides essential guidance for the implementation of conservation tillage technologies. Taking Shenyang’s dryland fields as the research object, this study employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi method to construct a suitability evaluation index system for dryland conservation tillage, which includes nine indicators: effective accumulated temperature, annual precipitation, average wind speed, topographic location, slope gradient, field block regularity, soil texture, effective soil layer thickness, and soil organic matter content. GIS technology was used to conduct suitability assessments and spatial analysis of dryland conservation tillage. By calculating the constraint degree for each indicator, the primary driving factors were identified. The suitability of conservation tillage for dryland farming in Shenyang shows a distribution pattern of "high in the west, low in the east" and "high in the south, low in the north". Specifically, the highly suitable, relatively suitable, moderately suitable, and unsuitable areas account for 28.24%, 27.36%, 31.24%, and 13.16% of the dryland area, respectively. Regarding subsystem constraints, climatic conditions contribute 45% to the constraints, topography and landforms account for 33%, and soil properties represent 22%. Key driving factors include annual precipitation, effective accumulated temperature, slope gradient, and effective soil layer thickness. Interaction analysis via geographical detector indicates that the enhancing interaction among precipitation, topography, and wind speed constitutes the key combination influencing suitability—for example, the interaction explanatory power q-value between annual precipitation and topographic location reaches 0.7394,, as topography modulates rainfall redistribution. Overall, climatic factors are the primary determinant of the spatial distribution of dryland conservation tillage suitability. Western and southern Shenyang exhibits high suitability for conservation tillage, making these areas priority zones for practical implementation. Conversely, eastern and northern regions show lower suitability, requiring the exploration of more appropriate technical models to balance productivity and soil protection, thereby achieving comprehensive conservation and quality improvement of dryland fields across the entire study area.

     

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