印度河上游流域融雪径流时间的变化特征及其驱动因素

  • 摘要: ​​在寒冷的山区流域,融雪径流及其形成时间预计将发生显著变化,这些地区的水资源形成易受气候变化影响。融雪径流量和时间上的波动给防洪和下游灌溉带来了挑战。因此,本研究采用“中心时间(CT)”、“春季脉冲开始(SPO)”以及月径流比例(MFS)综合分析等方法,评估了印度河上游流域(UIB)及其子流域融雪径流及其时间的变化。该分析揭示了融雪径流时间变化对不同气候变量的响应以及各子流域变化的空间异质性。结果表明,近几十年来,UIB的春季和冬季径流显著增加,表明后期融雪径流量减少。由CT和SPO指标变化趋势表明的UIB融雪径流时间显著提前,并且在子流域间表现出明显的空间异质性。融雪径流时间的变化与温度和积雪覆盖的关系比与降水的关系更为密切。在冰川覆盖的喀喇昆仑地区和积雪覆盖面积较大的Gilgit和Astore流域,温度显著影响积雪融水调节,导致融雪径流时间提前更为明显。在Kharmong流域,融雪径流对降水变化的响应更为显著。尽管这些指标可能未能完全捕捉融雪径流时间的变化且存在不确定性,但本研究确定的融雪径流量和时间对于区域水资源管理至关重要。

     

    Abstract: Snowmelt runoff and its timing are expected to undergo significant changes in cold mountainous basins, where the formation of water resources is vulnerable to climate change. Fluctuations in the magnitude and timing of snowmelt runoff present challenges for flood control and downstream irrigation. Consequently, an analysis of snowmelt run-off variations and timing in the UIB and its sub-basins was conducted using methodologies such as the ‘Center Time (CT)’, ‘Spring Pulse Onset (SPO)’ and comprehensive analysis of monthly fractional streamflow (MFS). This analysis revealed the response of shifts in snowmelt runoff timing to various climatic variables and the spatial heterogeneity of changes across different basins. Consequently, spring and winter runoff in the UIB has significantly increased over recent decades, suggesting a reduction in water storage for subsequent melt runoff. The timing of snowmelt runoff, as indicated by the CT and SPO indicators, was significantly advanced in the UIB, exhibiting notable spatial heterogeneity among sub-basins. The shift of snowmelt runoff timing is more closely related to temperature and snowpack coverage than to precipitation. In the glaciated Karakoram and the snow-covered Gilgit and Astore sub-basins, temperature significantly influences snow-pack meltwater regulation, resulting in a more pronounced advancement of snowmelt runoff timing. In the Kharmong basin, reduced snowpack cover results in a more significant response of snowmelt runoff to variations in precipitation. While the indices may not fully capture the changes in snowmelt runoff timing and uncertainties remain, the magnitude and timing of snowmelt runoff identified in this study are essential for regional water resources management.

     

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