东三省农业降碳减污扩绿增长效率时空特征及驱动因素研究*

Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Drivers of Agricultural Eco-efficiency in Northeast China*

  • 摘要: 明晰东三省农业降碳减污扩绿增长效率时空特征及驱动因素,对推动该区域农业农村现代化发展至关重要。本文基于东三省32个主要城市2014-2023年的面板数据,运用非期望产出Super-SBM模型、核密度估计、空间自相关及空间面板计量模型进行分析。研究发现:①东三省农业降碳减污扩绿增长效率整体呈现上升趋势,明显的阶段性波动特征与持续扩大的空间分异趋势,同时还伴随着效率水平在空间分布上的多极分化现象。②在全局空间维度上,农业降碳减污扩绿增长效率呈现出显著的正向空间关联性,在局域空间尺度上呈现出冷点区、次冷点区、过渡区、次热点区、热点区5种空间聚集类型。③基于空间杜宾模型的计量估计结果,当本地城市在农业降碳减污扩绿增长效率提升1%时,会通过空间交互机制对地理邻近区域产生显著的负向外溢作用,致使邻近城市农业降碳减污扩绿增长效率衰减0.565%。④空间效应分解结果进一步揭示了各影响因素对效率的直接影响和空间溢出效应存在的差异。研究显示,农业降碳减污扩绿增长效率存在一定程度的空间相关,但空间关联性以及紧密程度仍需进一步提高,建议加强省际与城际协同作用、实施差异化发展策略以及强化多维邻近要素的深度合作等路径推进农业降碳减污扩绿增长效率的提升。

     

    Abstract: Clarifying the spatio-temporal characteristics and driving factors of agricultural eco-efficiency (integrating carbon reduction, pollution abatement, green expansion, and growth) in Northeast China’s Three Provinces is crucial for advancing agricultural and rural modernization in the region. Utilizing panel data from 32 major cities from 2014 to 2023, this study employs the Undesirable Output Super-SBM model, kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatial panel econometric models for empirical analysis. The findings indicate that: (1) The overall agricultural eco-efficiency in the region demonstrates an upward trend, yet inter-regional disparities exhibit phased characteristics, a widening tendency, and signs of polarization. (2) A significant positive global spatial autocorrelation is observed for agricultural eco-efficiency. Locally, spatial agglomeration manifests as five distinct types: cold spots, sub-cold spots, transition zones, sub-hot spots, and hot spots. (3) Improvements in urban agricultural eco-efficiency exhibit a significant negative spatial spillover effect. Specifically, a 1% increase in efficiency within a local city is associated with a 0.565% decrease in efficiency in neighboring cities. (4) Decomposition of spatial effects further reveals differences in the direct impacts and spatial spillover effects of various influencing factors. The study concludes that while a certain degree of spatial correlation exists, the strength and connectivity of these spatial linkages require enhancement. Recommendations are proposed, including strengthening inter-provincial and inter-city collaboration, implementing differentiated development strategies, and fostering in-depth cooperation across multiple dimensions to promote agricultural eco-efficiency.

     

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