中国稻田-动物共作系统对水稻产量与温室气体排放影响的Meta分析

Effects of China's Rice-animal Co-farming system on Rice Yield and Greenhouse gas emissions: a meta-analysis

  • 摘要: 稻田是温室气体的重要排放源,稻田-动物共作系统对于促进水稻增产、减轻温室气体排放具有重要作用,其效果受不同稻作模式、水生动物品种、密度及施肥方式等因素影响。基于2000-2025年间发表的76篇文献、248组田间试验数据样本,采用Meta分析研究中国稻田-动物共作系统对水稻产量及温室气体排放的影响,随机森林模型量化不同影响因素的贡献率。与水稻单作相比,稻田-动物共作系统具有显著的水稻增产和CH4减排效应(8.17%和14.64%;P<0.05),对N2O减排效应不显著(P>0.05),且稻鸭模式的增产减排效果优于稻虾模式和稻鱼模式。氮投入量、放养密度、土壤和气候条件对稻田共作系统具有不同的增产减排效应。适宜的氮投入量(120~240kg∙hm-2)对稻田的增产减排效果优于低氮(0~120kg∙hm-2)和高氮投入量(≥240kg∙hm-2)。高密度放鸭(>450只)可能导致水稻减产,高密度养虾(≥500kg)有助于增产。初始土壤有机碳含量在0~20g∙kg-1有利于稻田增产,但不利于CH4减排。年降水量在1000~2000mm时有利于稻田增产减排,升温(年均温>20℃)不利于稻田增产减排。随机森林模型表明,对水稻产量影响较大的前3位因素分别为氮投入(31.02%)、土壤初始有机碳含量(19.13%)和放养密度(18.77%)。对稻田CH4排放影响较大的前3位因素分别为年均温(55.02%)、年降水(22.65%)和土壤初始有机碳含量(12.14%)。结果认为,中国稻田-共作系统受到气候、土壤性质和田间管理措施等多重因素的相互作用,在适宜的土壤和气候条件下,优化稻作模式和放养密度,合理施用氮肥有助于实现稻田增产与减排双赢,保障粮食安全。

     

    Abstract: Rice paddies are significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Rice-animal co-culture systems play an important role in improving rice yield and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, with effects influenced by factors such as rice cultivation patterns, aquatic animal species, density, and fertilization methods. Based on 76 papers and 248 field experiment datasets published between 2000 and 2025, this study used Meta-analysis to investigate the effects of rice-animal co-culture systems on rice yield and greenhouse gas emissions in China. A random forest model was employed to quantify the contributions of various influencing factors. Compared with monoculture rice, the rice-animal co-culture system significantly increased rice yield (by 8.17%, P<0.05) and reduced CH4 emissions (by 14.64%, P<0.05), but showed no significant effect on N2O emissions (P>0.05). Among the co-culture systems, the duck model performed better in yield increase and emission reduction than the shrimp and fish models. Nitrogen input, stocking density, and soil and climate conditions varied in their effects on yield and emission reduction. Moderate nitrogen input (120~240kg∙hm-2) achieved better yield-increasing and emission-reducing effects compared to low nitrogen input (0~120kg∙hm-2) and high nitrogen input (≥240kg∙hm-2). High stocking density of ducks (>450) might lead to decreased rice yield, while high stocking density of shrimp (≥500 kg) contributed to increased yield. An initial soil organic carbon content of 0~20g∙kg-1 favored rice yield increase but was unfavorable for CH4 emission reduction. Rice production and emission reduction were enhanced when precipitation was between 1000~2000mm, but temperature rise (mean annual temperature>20℃) was detrimental to both. According to the random forest model, the top three factors influencing rice yield were nitrogen input (31.02%), initial soil organic carbon content (19.13%), and stocking density (18.77%). The top three factors influencing CH4 emissions were mean annual temperature (55.02%), annual precipitation (22.65%), and initial soil organic carbon content (12.14%). The results suggest that rice-animal co-culture systems in China are influenced by climate, soil properties, and field management practices. Under suitable soil and climate conditions, optimizing rice cultivation patterns and stocking density and applying nitrogen fertilizer reasonably can help achieve a dual win of rice yield increase and greenhouse gas emission reduction, thereby ensuring food security.

     

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