Abstract: Agriculture is one of the major sources of carbon emissions, with crop cultivation being a key component that exhibits significant regional differences. Based on data from 2000 to 2022, this study systematically measured carbon emissions from agricultural inputs and farmland soils in Inner Mongolia using the IPCC emission factor method. It further applied the LMDI decomposition model to analyze the dynamic impacts of production efficiency, industrial structure, economic level, and agricultural population on carbon emissions. In addition, ridge regression based on the STIRPAT model was used to forecast the carbon emission trends of crop cultivation in Inner Mongolia.The results show that from 2000 to 2022, total carbon emissions from crop cultivation in Inner Mongolia increased from 2.43 million tons to 5.68 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 3.94%, displaying a “growth–adjustment–rebound” fluctuation pattern. Among agricultural input emissions, fertilizer use accounted for nearly half, while the annual growth rate of plastic film use reached 5.4%. Regarding farmland soil emissions, corn became the primary emission source due to the expansion of its planting area, with its share rising from 50.8% to 83.3%. Soybean emissions remained between 10% and 20%, while wheat and tuber crop emissions declined by about 65%.LMDI decomposition results indicate that economic growth contributed 284.01% to the increase in carbon emissions, making it the dominant driving factor. In contrast, production efficiency and agricultural population contributed -137.85% and -41.67%, respectively, demonstrating their significant inhibitory effects. The contribution of industrial structure optimization was relatively small at -4.49%.Based on the STIRPAT model and ridge regression analysis, three scenarios were constructed. Under the baseline scenario, carbon emissions are projected to reach 6.59 million tons by 2030; under the low-carbon scenario, 6.19 million tons; and under the enhanced mitigation scenario, 5.61 million tons. To achieve carbon reduction in crop cultivation in Inner Mongolia, efforts should focus on fertilizer reduction, technological upgrading, and the promotion of green and low-carbon production practices.