LUCC(土地利用与覆被变化)转换下的极端温度特征分析及其对作物产量的影响

Analysis of extreme temperature characteristics under LUCC conversion and their impact on crop yield

  • 摘要: 摘要:极端气候事件对全球粮食生产构成重大风险。随着气候及底层地表条件的变化,极端温度的空间-时间特征及其对区域作物产量的影响往往被忽视。基于 1951 年至 2020 年来自国家气象站的月度温度数据,本文运用趋势线和小波周期法探讨了 LUCC 转换背景下极端温度变化特征。并通过应用随机前沿模型,对区域作物产出所受的影响进行了定量分析。结果表明,在研究期间,区域极端温度指数在时间序列上呈现出波动上升的趋势,具有明显的周期性特征,主要围绕 30 年左右,并逐步显现出 50 年或更长期的特征,同时空间分布表现出异质性;区域极端温度指数的最大值均出现在 2000 年之后,区域温度显著上升,极端气候现象随着时间的推移变得愈发突出,这总体上对区域农业产出造成了影响,特别是最高温度最低值(TXn)指数上升了 1%,而相应的产出则下降了 0.57%(p=0.05)。我们的研究结果将为制定适应策略以减轻未来极端气候影响提供相关信息。

     

    Abstract: Abstract: Extreme climate events pose significant risks to global food production. With changes in climate and underlying surface conditions, the spatial-temporal characteristics of extreme temperatures and their impact on regional crop yields are often overlooked. Based on monthly temperature data from national meteorological stations from 1951 to 2020, trend lines and wavelet period methods were used to explore the characteristics of extreme temperature changes under LUCC conversion. And applying a stochastic frontier model, the impact on regional crop output is quantitatively analyzed. The results indicate that during the study period, the regional extreme temperature index showed a fluctuating upward trend in time series, with obvious periodic characteristics, mainly around 30 years, and gradually showing long-term characteristics of 50 years or more, while the spatial distribution showed heterogeneity; The maximum value of the regional extreme temperature index all appeared after 2000, and the regional temperature increased significantly, and the extreme weather phenomenon became increasingly prominent with the time series, which had a general impact on the regional agricultural output, especially the maximum temperature minimum (TXn) index increased by 1%, and the corresponding output decreased by 0.57% (p=0.05). Our research findings will provide information on adaptation strategies to mitigate future extreme climate impacts.

     

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