Research on the Construction of Tea Yield Model and Planting Management Strategies Based on Climatic Factors in Phenological Periods:A Case Study of Fuding City,Fujian Province

This paper focuses on the complex relationship between tea yield and the climatic factors in phenological periods that conform to the life rhythm of tea plants. By using meteorological indicators during the phenological stages of tea plants as factors to explore and establish a tea yield model, and management strategies are developed based on the main climate factors of the model. Based on the meteorological observation data and tea yield data of Fuding City from 1990 to 2022, the linear trend method was used to study the trend of climate change, and three methods, including multiple linear regression method, principal component analysis and neural network analysis, were used to construct the tea yield model for Fuding City. The research results show that from 1990 to 2022, the annual average temperature in Fuding City increased significantly at a rate of 0.436 °C/10a. The annual sunshine hours and annual precipitation increased slightly at rates of 4.078 h/10a and 31.105 mm/10a respectively during irregular fluctuations. Climate change affects the stability of tea yield.The neural network model fitted with 14 key meteorological factors screened from 9 phenological periods of tea plants has an accuracy of 93.13% and a standard deviation of 5.5957, making it the optimal yield model. Among the models, three meteorological factors—the number of precipitation days in the full phenological period, the average air pressure during the spring tea picking period, and the accumulated temperature ≥ 10 °C in the second growth period, have relatively large weights in influencing the tea yield in Fuding City. Finally, based on the analysis and discussion of the climatic factors of the main phenological periods of teaplants in the optimal model, some suggestions for adjusting the tea tree planting strategies suitable for Fuding City are put forward. These suggestions include formulating precise tea garden irrigation and drainage management plans, establishing a meteorological monitoring and early warning system in tea-growing areas, formulating scientific and reasonable tea garden site selection and layout plans, and comprehensively applying long-term management strategies to cope with climate change.