Effects and its spatial characteristics of socialized agriculture services on agricultural carbon emissions

Agricultural carbon dioxide emissions represent a significant challenge for China in its pursuit of the “dual carbon” goals. These goals are critically essential in the transition towards high-quality development of China. Within this context, socialized agriculture services emerged as a pivotal element, bridging the gap between household-based farmers and the modern agricultural practices, and significantly inhibiting the increase of agricultural carbon dioxide emissions. Based on analysis of the theories about socialized agriculture services and agricultural carbon dioxide emissions and the provincial panel data about them from 2007 to 2021, this research paper comprehensively uses factor measurement algorithm, spreading grade method, two-way fixed effects model, mediation effect model and spatial econometrics (specially the spatial Durbin model). These methods are employed to measure the amount of agricultural carbon dioxide emissions and the estimated extents of socialized agricultural services in each province been considered. Additionally, this study examines the impact of socialized agriculture services on agricultural carbon dioxide emissions, the specific pathways through which this impact occurs, spatial effects and characteristics of the main effect, and the spatial range over which these spatial effects are observed. The results show that: 1) On the whole, agricultural carbon dioxide emissions most provinces show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing with the growing of years, while the levels of socialized agricultural services of each province are increasing year by year; Socialized agriculture services plays a significant role in inhibiting agricultural carbon dioxide emissions; The estimations of the inhibitions exhibit differences under samples from provinces in different locations, the samples from eastern provinces shows a reinforced effect while the western shows an effect that seems more weak. 2) In the process of inhibiting agricultural carbon dioxide emissions through various pathways of socialized agriculture services, the intermediating roles of land transfer and the reduction of household-scale farming are significant that they can play a partial mediation effect of the overall. Specially, the mediation effect of rural land transfer accounts for 13% of the total effect, while the reduction of house-hold farming contributes to 18% of the total effect. 3) From the estimation of spatial effects, the role of socialized agriculture services from spatially related areas can spill over in space. Socialized agriculture services from other areas can significantly inhibit local agricultural carbon dioxide emissions. And the spillover of socialized agriculture services was measured can spread a wide range, increasing with the increase of economic distance. 73.8% of the total spillover effect of socialized agriculture services on agricultural carbon dioxide emissions been measured under the economic distance of 2 days, and 26.2% of the whole spill over effect from the economic distance beyond 2days. Therefore, governments of a province should build systems tailored to local conditions of socialized agriculture services. And governments should aim to moderately increase the transfer rate of rural land, weakening the scale of household-based farmers, improving the full process services of rural land custody; Give full play to regional industrial advantages, encourage cross regional socialized agriculture services, strengthen integration cooperation of regional economic and promote efficient cross regional resource allocation.