A study on the impact of extreme temperature on the resilience of grain production: perspectives on green finance

Against the backdrop of the intensifying effects of global climate change, the number of extreme temperature events are gradually increasing, posing a severe challenge to grain production. Clarifying the impacts and mechanisms of extreme temperature on the resilience of grain production is of great significance for responding to these temperature events, thereby improving the grain production resilience and ensuring food security. Grain production is an important component of the grain system, and existing research has not thoroughly analyzed the relationship and underlying mechanisms between extreme temperature and grain production resilience. Therefore, based on panel data from 31 provinces in China, excluding Hong Kong of China, Macao of China, and Taiwan of China, from 2012 to 2021, this article used the entropy method to calculate the resilience level of grain production and the level of green finance. A panel Tobit model was constructed to empirically analyze the impact of extreme temperature on grain production resilience, and a moderating effect model was used to examine the regulatory effect of green finance on the impact of extreme temperature on grain production resilience. The results indicated that: 1) extreme temperature had a significant negative impact on the resilience of grain production, and the negative impact of extremely high temperature was stronger than that of extremely low temperature. Using observable variables to measure the likelihood of bias caused by unobserved variables alleviated endogeneity issues that may arise from omitted variables, and a series of robustness tests were conducted. Thus, this conclusion is valid. 2) A mechanistic analysis showed that green finance alleviated the adverse effects of extreme temperature on the grain production resilience. 3) The impact of extreme temperature on grain production resilience varied significantly across different functional areas of grain production and grain production resilience dimensions. Extreme temperature notably weakened the grain production resilience in the major grain-producing areas and production-sale balance areas. Moreover, the adverse effects of extremely high temperature surpassed those of extremely low temperature. However, extreme temperature did not significantly affect the grain production resilience in the major selling areas. Concerning the various dimensions of grain production resilience, both extremely high and low temperature significantly reduced adaptability, while extremely high temperature notably diminished resistance. 4) In terms of the impact of extreme temperature on grain production resilience, green finance was found to exert a significant regulatory effect on the main grain-producing areas, production-sale balance areas, and the adaptability dimension. Specifically, green finance positively regulated the impact of extremely low temperature on grain production resilience and the capacities of change and adapt. However, in major selling areas, the regulatory effect of green finance was not significant. Based on these results, we recommend enhancing grain production security, bolstering support for green finance in the grain production sector, and devising tailored strategies to enhance grain production resilience in response to escalating extreme temperature.