Rationality and regulation of provincial virtual water flow for agricultural and livestock products in China

The study of virtual water is critical for the security of water resources and livestock products. To explore regional virtual water flow compatibility, improve allocation of water resources in China and optimize livestock product spatial layout, we built a rationality index system to assess the suitability of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products in China. The assessment system involved water resources, land resources, basis for agricultural development, social economic development and ecological environment. The system was then used to determine the suitability of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products in a comprehensive weight summation analysis. Based on present conditions of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products, we put forward the concept of rationality of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products and built a quantitative evaluation model for determining rationality index of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products across the provinces in China. The results showed that provinces suitable for virtual water output exceeded that suitable for virtual water input in agricultural and livestock products. Most provinces suitable for virtual water output were the inland provinces of China. In Tibet Autonomous Region, Heilongjiang Province, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, agricultural and livestock products suitability index of virtual water output was high. The top three suitability indexes of virtual water output in agricultural and livestock products were for Beijing City, Tianjin City and Shanghai City. The factors that affected the suitability of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products varied vastly among provinces. Although the total rationality index of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products in the provinces in China was not high, only 14 provinces had rationality index lower than 1. The rationality indexes for Shanghai City (0.16), Shanxi Province (0.21) and Jilin Province (0.23) were suitable in terms of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products. Guizhou Province was most irrational with an index value of 4.84. The next most irrational zones were Henan Province (4.18) and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (4.04). There was no obvious regional distribution pattern of rationality index. Based on the current state and suitability of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products in the provinces, six classes of adjustments were recommended. The classes of adjustments included controlling output, encouraging output, controlling input, encouraging input, converting to input and converting to output. Six provinces belonged to controlling output - Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Helongjiang Province, Henan Province and Jilin Province. While Tibet Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province and Anhui Province needed to increase virtual water output, Fujian Province, Zhejiang Province, Chongqing City and Guangzhou Province needed to reduce it. The present level of virtual water input was lower than that of virtual water input suitability in six provinces - Beijing City, Shanghai City, Tianjin City, Shanxi Province, Jiangsu Province and Shaanxi Province. It therefore was suggested that all relevant stakeholders put more efforts in increasing virtual water input in these cities.