Risk analysis and regionalization of cold and freezing damage to Taiwan-based Zizyphus mauritiana in Fujian Province

This study determined the risk of cold and freezing damage to Zizyphus mauritiana introduced to the complex terrains of Fujian Province from Taiwan Province in order to avoid planting the crop in high risk areas. Based on disaster risk system theory, the study used meteorological, agricultural and economic data to analyze potential hazards of cold and freezing damage and vulnerability of Z. mauritiana. The study also investigated the prevention measures of cold and freezing damage in the cultivated regions and developed a model-driven index system of evaluation based on the AHP, entropy-weight coefficient and comprehensive weighting methods. The study further determined the degree and region of risk of cold and freezing damage to Z. mauritiana in Fujian. In terms of risk factor composition, the results showed that potential hazard was the determinant factor of cold and freezing damage and prevention measures only mitigated this potential. For risk region, the areas of lighter risk of cold and freezing damage to Z. mauritiana were Hui'an County of Xiamen Region and the coastal counties to the south of Xiamen Region. The potential hazard of cold and freezing damage was low in these regions and frequency occurrence of moderate or severe damages were less or even non-existent. The regions with moderate risk were in the low elevation areas of Zhangzhou Inland Region, low elevation areas of the coastal counties of Fuzhou Region, and parts of Yongchun County, Tong'an District and Hui'an County. The occurrence frequency of moderate or severe damages was relatively low in the areas. Other cultivated regions of Z. mauritiana had severe risk of cold and freezing damage. Among the regions, cold and freezing damage risk was severe in Longyan City, the western mountain areas of Zhangzhou Region, the western and northern mountain areas of Fuzhou Region, Yongchun County, Ningde City and Xiapu County. Based on the risk evaluation results and Z. mauritiana cold and freezing damage, the morphological characterization of cold and freezing damage to Z. mauritiana was consistent with the risk evaluation results. The results of the study offered the basis for decisions on Z. mauritiana cultivation and arrangement in Fujian Province.